The crypto “waiting room” describes a temporary pause before broad market breakout when capital and liquidity accumulate; Raoul Pal and other analysts say this could extend the crypto market cycle into Q1–Q2 2026, setting the stage for altcoin breakouts led by SOL, SUI and DOGE.
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Macro-driven extension: Slower business-cycle liquidity may push the market cycle into early 2026.
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Institutional allocations remain robust, with stablecoin inflows suggesting renewed buying capacity.
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Technical setups on Solana show ascending-triangle patterns; SUI and DOGE are cited as likely next movers.
crypto waiting room: Market cycle may extend into Q1–Q2 2026 as liquidity stays elevated — read how altcoins like SOL, SUI and DOGE could lead the next leg.
Some of the leading altcoins are set to rise out of the “waiting room,” potentially expanding the crypto market cycle into the first quarter of 2026, according to Raoul Pal and market observers.
What is the crypto “waiting room” and could the cycle extend into 2026?
Crypto “waiting room” refers to a phase where market participants and liquidity wait for a catalyst before broad price discovery. Analysts led by Raoul Pal argue that slower business-cycle dynamics could extend the current crypto market cycle into Q1–Q2 2026, preserving institutional allocations and preparing altcoins for a rally.
How could institutional capital and liquidity extend the market cycle?
Front-loaded institutional allocations and rising stablecoin balances act as dry powder. Stablecoin inflows on major exchanges recently exceeded $1.65 billion, which historically precedes renewed trading activity. Market strategists use macro models like the business cycle score to show liquidity remaining supportive for longer, delaying peak price discovery.
The cryptocurrency market appears to be in a measured pause before the next phase of price discovery. Analysts attribute this to a mix of macroeconomic dynamics and persistent institutional interest.
Raoul Pal, founder and CEO of Global Macro Investor, frames the current environment as a “waiting room.” He uses a business cycle score to map where the global economy sits and argues that slower business-cycle dynamics may push the rally timeline into early 2026.
Market analysts such as Enmanuel Cardozo at Brickken note that recent pullbacks were driven more by political tension and rate-policy uncertainty than by on-chain fundamentals. Institutional positioning, according to these analysts, has not become broadly bearish.
Stablecoin flows remain a key metric. A recent surge in stablecoin inflows on major exchanges surpassed $1.65 billion, serving as a potential precursor for renewed trading activity and capital deployment into crypto markets.
What altcoins are poised to leave the waiting room first?
Pal identifies Solana (SOL) as the “next to leave,” citing technical patterns such as an ascending triangle that traders view as bullish. The sequential expectation is that Sui (SUI) and Dogecoin (DOGE) will follow once larger-cap altcoin momentum broadens to smaller leaders.
He also notes that XRP is “in the process of full porting,” while many largest altcoins outside the top 10 may need more time before joining a parabolic stage. Historical analogies to 2017 are used cautiously by analysts who emphasize differences in institutional participation and macro context.
Frequently Asked Questions
How long could the extended cycle last?
Analysts probabilistically place the extension through Q1 and possibly Q2 2026, driven by slower business-cycle forces that keep liquidity higher for longer. This timeline depends on macro shifts and policy changes.
What metrics should traders watch now?
Monitor stablecoin balances on exchanges, institutional custody flows, macro liquidity indicators and on-chain metrics for network activity. Combine technical patterns with macro context for confirmation.
Key Takeaways
- Macro liquidity may extend the cycle: Slower business-cycle dynamics can push peak price discovery into early 2026.
- Institutional positioning remains supportive: Allocations have not turned broadly bearish; stablecoin inflows indicate available capital.
- Altcoins to watch: SOL, SUI and DOGE are identified as likely early movers once broader market momentum resumes.
Conclusion
The crypto “waiting room” signals a consolidation phase before broad price discovery, with macro liquidity and institutional flows potentially extending the market cycle into Q1–Q2 2026. Monitor stablecoin inflows, business-cycle indicators, and technical breakouts on SOL, SUI and DOGE to gauge the next leg. COINOTAG will continue tracking developments and market data.
