Solana May Fall Below $200 Amid Falling Open Interest and Weak Buyer Confidence

• Falling Open Interest points to reduced momentum and position closures.

• Short-Term Holder NUPL near 0.03 signals fragile buyer profits and higher liquidation risk.

• On-chain sources (CoinGlass, Glassnode) and technical indicators show mounting downside pressure.

Solana price under pressure as Open Interest and short-term holder metrics weaken — read key signals and what traders should watch next.

What is driving the current Solana price drop?

Solana price is falling primarily because futures Open Interest has contracted and short-term holder metrics show low net unrealized profit/loss, indicating weak buyer conviction. These on-chain signals reduce momentum and make the $200 support vulnerable unless fresh demand returns quickly.

How has Open Interest affected SOL momentum?

Futures Open Interest declined alongside SOL through September, according to CoinGlass data. Traders closed positions rather than adding exposure, which reduced liquidity and diminished directional conviction.

Lower OI often means fewer committed buyers and sellers, which amplifies price moves and leaves key supports like $200 exposed to sharp corrections.

Source: CoinGlass (plain text)

Why are Short-Term Holder metrics important for SOL right now?

Short-Term Holder NUPL has dropped to ~0.03, placing SOL in a “Hope–Fear” zone where recent buyers are near breakeven. This makes the cohort sensitive to price moves and prone to rapid exits.

When STH cohorts exit or get flushed, selling pressure can cascade and produce swift corrections even on modest negative triggers.

Source: Glassnode (plain text)

Will Solana fall below $200?

Technically, the risk of SOL dropping under $200 is elevated. The Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is only marginally positive (~0.10), which is insufficient to absorb consistent selling. If bulls fail to defend $200, expect that level to become resistance on any recovery attempt.

Risk management for traders: tighten stops, monitor OI and STH NUPL, and watch for increases in futures funding rates that may indicate renewed leverage-driven buying.

How can traders assess near-term risk?

Use a combination of on-chain and technical indicators:

• Monitor futures Open Interest and funding rates for leverage dynamics.
• Watch Short-Term Holder NUPL and exchange flows for selling pressure signals.
• Track CMF and volume to validate whether buying interest is returning.

Frequently Asked Questions

How quickly can SOL move below $200?

Short-term moves can occur rapidly when Open Interest is low and short-term holders are near breakeven. If panic selling begins, a drop below $200 could happen within days rather than weeks.

What indicators should long-term holders watch?

Long-term holders should watch macro liquidity flows, exchange reserves, and major protocol developments, while using on-chain metrics like NUPL to time significant re-accumulation windows.

Key Takeaways

• Reduced Open Interest: Declining futures OI signals weaker market conviction and higher volatility risk.
• Fragile short-term holders: NUPL near 0.03 suggests many recent buyers are close to break-even and vulnerable to panic selling.
• Monitor specific signals: Track CoinGlass OI, Glassnode NUPL, CMF, and volume for early signs of support or further downside.

Conclusion

Solana price is showing clear signs of stress: falling Open Interest and weak Short-Term Holder NUPL reduce buyer conviction and increase downside risk to the $200 support. Traders should monitor on-chain metrics and technical signals closely. COINOTAG will continue to update this analysis as new data from CoinGlass and Glassnode become available.