Solana May Test $200 Support as $230 Resistance Shows Signs of Weakness

• Solana faces a weakening $230 resistance due to realized profits and low rotational flow.

• Key risk: $200–$220 long clusters could trigger a retest of $200 if bids fail to hold.

• On-chain data: ~$1.03 billion realized at ~ $234 and NRPL flip showed ~ $1.7 billion realized losses.

Solana resistance analysis: Solana resistance at $230 is weakening amid heavy profit-taking and clustered longs; read our data-driven breakdown and what traders should watch. Read more.

What is causing Solana’s $230 resistance to weaken?

Solana resistance around $230 is weakening because large profit realization and a lack of rotational buying reduced bid support. On-chain indicators show concentrated long liquidity and realized losses that increase downside vulnerability while buyers reassess risk around the $200–$230 band.

How could SOL move before the next leg up?

SOL could retest $200 if the $200–$220 long cluster is flushed. Short-term dynamics: a sell-off clears weak hands, potentially enabling a later push toward $250–$300, but only if bulls re-establish $200 as firm support and rotational flow returns.

Solana’s $200 support tested by heavy long positioning

So far, Solana has been the most exposed to capitulation risk. NRPL flipped red at the back end of September as price broke below $224, triggering roughly $1.7 billion in realized losses and accelerating sell-side pressure.

Massive profit-taking followed the run-up: on 2 October, nearly $1.03 billion in SOL were realized around $234, meaning approximately 4.4 million SOL changed hands. The immediate reaction pushed SOL down to $228 (about -2.5%), showing the resistance wall at $230 struggled to absorb selling.

On-chain distribution matters: around 5% of supply remains clustered at $224. With $200 million in overexposed longs concentrated in the $200–$220 range, the risk of a move toward $200 remains material if bids fail.

Source: TradingView (SOL/USDT)

The market is shrugging off rotational bids, and on-chain data shows investors avoiding altcoins. The Altcoin Season Index fell four points to 67 at press time, highlighting muted risk appetite and constrained alt flows.

After capitulation, SOL bounced ~18.5% off $200, with bulls briefly turning $200 into support and testing $230. But resistance around $230 remains a near-term ceiling unless rotational buying and fresh bids return.

Source: Glassnode

Frequently Asked Questions

Could SOL test $200 again this quarter?

Yes. If $230 resistance holds and the $200–$220 long cluster is flushed, SOL could retest $200. A sustained reclaim of $200 by bulls is needed to resume a bullish trajectory toward $250–$300.

What on-chain metrics signal capitulation?

Net Realized Profit/Loss (NRPL) flips, large realized-loss events (~$1.7 billion in this episode) and concentrated supply at specific price points (e.g., 5% at $224) are classic capitulation signals.

Key Takeaways

• Resistance weakness: Heavy profit-taking near $234 weakened the $230 resistance and removed buying momentum.
• Support vulnerability: $200 is critical; $200–$220 long clusters ($200M) raise retest risk.
• Actionable insight: Traders should monitor NRPL, realized volumes, and order-book bids around $200 before adding exposure.

Conclusion

Solana resistance at $230 is under pressure as realized profits and concentrated long liquidity increase downside risk. Watch on-chain NRPL, realized-loss events and the $200–$220 long cluster for clues; if $200 holds, SOL could clear weak hands and target higher levels in Q4. COINOTAG will monitor updates and on-chain flows.

Published: 2025-10-04 | Updated: 2025-10-04 | Author: COINOTAG