Some Bitcoin Treasury Firms Could Trade at Discounts to Holdings as Share Prices Slip Below Key Threshold, TD Cowen Says

• Stocks trading below mNAV reduce share issuance as a funding tool

• Four tracked firms currently trade at notable discounts vs. their Bitcoin holdings

• Collective Bitcoin holdings among these firms total approximately $1.15 billion

Bitcoin treasury firms losing luster as share prices slip below mNAV; learn which companies trade at discounts and what that means for investors — read our analysis now.

What are Bitcoin treasury firms and why are they losing their luster?

Bitcoin treasury firms are companies that accumulate Bitcoin on their balance sheets and measure success by Bitcoin per share. Recent declines in share prices below the market-to-net-asset value (mNAV) have reduced the incentive and ability to issue equity to buy more Bitcoin, pressuring growth.

How does mNAV affect a Bitcoin treasury firm’s strategy?

mNAV is the ratio of market price to net asset value (Bitcoin holdings per share). When mNAV is above 1x, firms can issue shares at a premium to buy additional Bitcoin, increasing Bitcoin-per-share. When mNAV falls below key thresholds, that equity-financing pathway closes, limiting organic accumulation.

Which Bitcoin treasury firms are currently trading at discounts?

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza tracked 13 Bitcoin-buying firms and identified four trading at meaningful discounts to their crypto holdings: Semler Scientific (≈ -4%), Sequans (≈ -25%), DDC Enterprise (≈ -18%), and Bitcoin Treasury Corp (≈ -18%). Collectively these entities control roughly $1.15 billion in Bitcoin.

What does this mean for investors and corporate strategy?

With share prices depressed, these firms can no longer rely on shared issuance as a low-cost acquisition tool. That reduces short-term growth prospects. Some firms with structural advantages — low fees, access to cheap debt, or lower operating costs — may still outperform Bitcoin itself, while weaker names could face consolidation.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are discounts a permanent sign of weakness for Bitcoin treasury firms?

Not necessarily. Discounts can reflect transient market sentiment. If Bitcoin rallies or the firm improves financing or cost structure, premiums can return quickly. However, sustained discounts increase acquisition risk and limit organic Bitcoin accumulation.

How do share unlocks affect treasury firm stock prices?

Large tranches of newly tradable shares increase supply and can depress the stock price, compress mNAV, and erode the firm’s ability to issue equity accretively. Investors should monitor lock-up expirations and insider sales.

Key Takeaways

• mNAV matters: A firm’s ability to issue shares accretively depends on its market-to-net-asset value.
• Discounts constrain growth: Several tracked firms trade below the value of their Bitcoin holdings, limiting share-based Bitcoin purchases.
• Outcomes diverge: Some firms may outperform Bitcoin due to operational advantages; others may be acquired if discounts persist.

Conclusion

Bitcoin treasury firms are facing a tactical squeeze: falling share prices below mNAV hinder their main growth mechanism—issuing equity to buy Bitcoin. Investors should track mNAV, funding options, and float dynamics to separate structurally advantaged firms from those at risk of consolidation. Monitor Bitcoin price action closely, as rallies can quickly flip the outlook.