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Toncoin (TON) is showing signs of a potential breakout, driven by strong whale accumulation despite a majority of holders currently facing unrealized losses.
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Derivative volumes and liquidation zones near key resistance levels indicate heightened market activity and speculative interest.
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According to COINOTAG, whale addresses have steadily increased their TON holdings since 2021, signaling confidence in the asset’s long-term value.
Toncoin’s whale accumulation and rising derivatives activity suggest a breakout could be imminent, with key resistance at $3.50 shaping market dynamics.
Whale Accumulation and Holder Profitability: Key Drivers for TON’s Momentum
Toncoin’s top 100 whale addresses have consistently expanded their holdings since 2021, demonstrating a strong conviction in the asset’s future appreciation. This sustained accumulation by influential investors often precedes significant price movements, as it reflects confidence in the underlying fundamentals and market potential. Currently, 71.28% of TON holders are “in the money,” indicating broad profitability across the network, while only 11.52% remain underwater. This distribution suggests limited immediate sell pressure, which could support price stability and upward momentum.
Moreover, a substantial portion of holders acquired TON below the $3.05 level, establishing a robust support zone. However, resistance clusters between $5 and $6 may act as profit-taking points, potentially capping near-term gains. Monitoring whale wallet activity is essential for anticipating shifts in liquidity and market sentiment, as these large holders often influence price trajectories through strategic accumulation or distribution.
Expanding Market Participation and Transaction Growth
Transaction data reveals a notable increase in both retail and institutional engagement with TON. Transactions ranging from $1 million to $10 million surged by nearly 80%, while those exceeding $10 million rose by 50%. This trend highlights growing institutional interest and confidence in TON’s prospects. Additionally, mid-tier transactions between $10,000 and $100,000 have also increased significantly, reflecting broader adoption and diversification among investors. Such a diverse transaction profile often correlates with enhanced market liquidity and reduced volatility, creating a healthier trading environment.
Derivatives Market Activity and Liquidation Zones Signal Potential Volatility
The derivatives market for TON has experienced a 14.95% increase in volume, reaching $174.86 million, alongside a 4.28% rise in Open Interest to $230.72 million. These metrics point to heightened speculative activity, likely fueled by recent price consolidation and whale accumulation. Increased leverage exposure typically amplifies price volatility, suggesting that TON could experience sharper price swings in the near term.
Binance’s liquidation heatmap identifies significant short liquidation clusters around $3.31 and $3.50 resistance levels. Should TON’s price break through these zones, a short squeeze could ensue, intensifying buying pressure and accelerating upward momentum. Conversely, long liquidations remain minimal below $3.10, providing a relatively safe entry point for bullish traders. This dynamic sets the stage for a potential breakout if TON surpasses the $3.31 threshold and targets the $3.50 resistance.
Source: Coinglass
Symmetrical Triangle Pattern: TON’s Technical Setup for a Breakout
Technically, TON has been consolidating within a symmetrical triangle pattern, bounded by resistance at $3.505 and support near $3.097. Such patterns often precede decisive price movements, as the contracting range builds tension between buyers and sellers. The combination of rising whale accumulation and increased derivatives volume enhances the likelihood of a breakout rather than a breakdown.
If TON breaches the $3.505 resistance with strong volume, it could target the $4.72 level, marking a significant upside move. Conversely, a failure to hold support at $3.097 might lead to a decline toward $2.28, signaling a bearish shift. This critical juncture underscores the importance of monitoring volume and whale activity closely to anticipate the next directional move.
Source: TradingView
Conclusion
Despite a majority of holders currently facing unrealized losses, TON’s sustained whale accumulation and rising derivatives activity suggest a bullish outlook. The asset is positioned at a pivotal technical level within a symmetrical triangle, where a breakout above $3.50 could trigger significant upward momentum. Traders and investors should closely watch whale wallet movements and liquidation zones to gauge market sentiment and potential volatility. With these factors in play, TON appears primed for a potential rally, making it a critical asset to monitor in the evolving crypto landscape.
