TRX showed relative resilience during the October sell-off: TRX fell to $0.30 on Oct 11 but on a TRX/BTC basis it outperformed peers, gaining 2.1% while ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC slid. On-chain activity and exchange balances show limited panic selling, supporting a measured short-term outlook for TRX.
-
TRX hit a $0.30 swing low on Oct 11, down ~10.98%
-
TRX/BTC gained 2.1% while ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC fell, indicating relative strength versus peers.
-
On-chain Coin Days Destroyed and exchange balance data show limited long-term holder movement, suggesting most selling occurred inside exchanges.
TRX price outlook: TRX held $0.30 support after an Oct 11 sell-off; monitor BTC direction and exchange flows for recovery signals. Read latest analysis by COINOTAG.
By COINOTAG | Published: 13 October 2025 | Updated: 13 October 2025
Is TRX fundamentally weak?
TRX price outlook shows short-term weakness after a 10.98% drop to $0.30 on 11 October, but fundamentals appear mixed: on-chain metrics point to limited long-term holder capitulation while BTC-relative strength suggests TRON preserved value versus many Layer‑1 peers.
What drove TRX’s October dump and where did the selling occur?
Exchange and on-chain indicators indicate most of the Oct 11 drawdown was concentrated within exchange order books rather than broad on‑chain liquidations. Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) remained low, implying holders who moved tokens had not been holding long enough to create large CDD spikes. Analysts on CryptoQuant Insights noted non‑exchange token supplies held up better than assets listed on large centralized exchanges, aligning with observed exchange‑driven selling.
TRX holds ground while peers bleed
Analyst commentary on CryptoQuant Insights highlighted TRON as an outlier during the widespread sell-off. While major altcoins saw sharp declines versus Bitcoin, TRX/BTC recorded a 2.1% gain on 11 October — contrasting with a 3.86% decline for ETH/BTC and an 8.27% decline for SOL/BTC.
That relative outperformance does not erase outright weakness in USD terms. On the 1‑day chart the TRX/BTC structure remained bearish and the pair was testing a key support that dates to late July. Traders should treat BTC direction as the primary short‑term driver: if Bitcoin stabilizes, TRX may reclaim intra‑day ranges and move back toward $0.33–$0.35.
TRON resilience in the face of panic
Technical signals on the daily timeframe showed resistance above $0.353 and momentum indicators favored sellers: both the 20‑day and 50‑day EMAs were sloping downward and the Money Flow Index (MFI) remained below 50. COINOTAG’s recent technical note argued a breakout to $0.37 would require reclaiming $0.353 and a visible shift in intraday flows. Until overhead resistance is cleared, a breach below $0.30 could open the path to further downside.
Weekly outlook still favors long-term holders
On the weekly timeframe the structure remains constructive. CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost highlighted that TRX was approximately 12.57% below its all‑time high, and had not experienced a drawdown exceeding 10% since the March correction until October. That relative stability on the weekly chart supports a longer‑term view that TRX remains attractive to holders who focus beyond intraday volatility.
Frequently Asked Questions
How low could TRX fall if $0.30 breaks and what are key supports?
If $0.30 fails, the next material support cluster is near $0.26–$0.28 where prior accumulation occurred. A drop below $0.26 would increase downside risk toward $0.22. Traders should watch on‑chain exchange outflows and BTC trend for confirmation before treating these levels as reliable turning points.
Will TRX recover quickly if Bitcoin stabilizes?
Yes. TRX has historically shown rapid recoveries when BTC stabilizes. If Bitcoin forms a base and buyers return to risk assets, TRX could move back into the $0.33–$0.35 zone within days to a couple of weeks, depending on liquidity and broader market sentiment.
Key Takeaways
- Short-term: TRX tested $0.30 on Oct 11 and showed intraday weakness, driven largely by exchange selling rather than broad on‑chain capitulation.
- Relative strength vs BTC: TRX/BTC outperformed many peers on Oct 11, gaining 2.1% while ETH/BTC and SOL/BTC declined.
- Weekly resilience: Weekly structure remains supportive; TRX is ~12.57% below its ATH and has avoided deep drawdowns since March—monitor BTC and exchange flow data for next moves.
Conclusion
TRX is not unequivocally weak: the Oct 11 sell‑off left a swing low at $0.30 and daily momentum favored sellers, yet on‑chain metrics and BTC‑relative performance point to resilience. Investors should monitor Bitcoin’s trend, exchange balances, and Coin Days Destroyed for confirmation. For medium‑term holders, the weekly picture remains a reason to watch for recovery rather than immediate capitulation.
Sources (plain text): CryptoQuant Insights, TradingView, COINOTAG. Author/Organization: COINOTAG.
