US-China Trade Deal May Aid Bitcoin Recovery as Fear Index Shows Slight Uptick

• Crypto Fear & Greed Index improves to 37 amid trade deal clarity.

• US President Donald Trump's announcement suspends tariffs until 2026, easing market tensions.

• Recent crypto crash liquidated $19 billion; experts view October 11 as a potential bottom day with 18% fear score.

Discover how the 2025 US-China trade deal influences crypto market sentiment. The Fear & Greed Index signals recovery potential for Bitcoin and Ethereum. Stay informed on bullish impacts—explore now!

What is the impact of the US-China trade deal on crypto market sentiment?

The US-China trade deal announced by President Donald Trump has introduced a measure of stability to global markets, indirectly benefiting the cryptocurrency sector by reducing fears of escalating tariffs. This agreement, which suspends heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports until November 10, 2026, comes at a time when the crypto market has been reeling from volatility tied to trade uncertainties. Analysts note that such developments often correlate with shifts in investor confidence, as seen in previous tariff suspensions that lifted sentiment indicators.

How has the Crypto Fear & Greed Index responded to recent trade news?

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, a key barometer for crypto market sentiment, climbed to a score of 37 on Sunday, reflecting a "Fear" level after hitting 33 the previous day. This uptick follows the White House's detailed statement on the trade agreement between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, which emphasizes protecting US economic interests while fostering better relations. Historically, the index has shown volatility over the past three months, dipping to an "Extreme Fear" low of 18 in April before rebounding to 39 post-tariff suspension. Data from alternative.me highlights this pattern, underscoring how trade policies influence crypto flows. Expert Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, described the October 11 crash—where $19 billion was liquidated—as a "bottom day in hindsight," suggesting the market may now be poised for recovery. Supporting this, crypto trader Ash Crypto called the deal's certainty "Bullish for markets," while 0xNobler labeled it "GIGA BULLISH NEWS." Despite these views, Bitcoin trades at $110,354 (up 0.26%) and Ether at $3,895 (up 0.84%) over the last 24 hours, per CoinMarketCap data, indicating modest gains without immediate surges.

Frequently Asked Questions

What caused the recent crypto market crash in October 2025?

The October 11, 2025, crypto market crash was largely attributed to President Trump's threat of 100% tariffs on China, triggering widespread liquidations totaling $19 billion in 24 hours. This event pushed the Crypto Fear & Greed Index to an extreme low of 18, reflecting panic selling amid heightened trade war fears. Recovery has been slow, but the latest deal offers hope for stabilization.

Will the US-China trade deal lead to a Bitcoin bull run?

Yes, the trade deal could catalyze a Bitcoin bull run by alleviating global economic pressures that often spill into crypto markets. With tariffs suspended until 2026, reduced uncertainty may encourage institutional inflows, building on Bitcoin's current position in the early stages of a bull cycle, as noted by analysts like Michael van de Poppe. Current prices around $110,000 suggest room for upward momentum if sentiment continues improving.

Key Takeaways

• Trade Deal Eases Tensions: The suspension of tariffs until November 2026 safeguards US interests and could indirectly support crypto recovery by stabilizing broader markets.
• Sentiment Index Recovery: The Crypto Fear & Greed Index's rise to 37 indicates fading extreme fear, with historical precedents showing quick rebounds after positive trade news.
• Analyst Optimism: Experts predict the October crash as a market bottom, urging investors to view this as an entry point in the ongoing bull cycle for Bitcoin and altcoins.

Conclusion

The 2025 US-China trade deal represents a pivotal moment for crypto market sentiment, as evidenced by the Crypto Fear & Greed Index's incremental improvement and analyst endorsements of a bullish outlook. While the market has yet to fully reflect this positivity—with Bitcoin and Ether showing only slight gains—the resolution of trade uncertainties paves the way for renewed investor confidence. As the industry watches these developments, staying attuned to sentiment indicators will be crucial for navigating the evolving landscape of digital assets.

A crypto analyst said the crypto market crash earlier this month will be looked back on as one of the “bottom days in hindsight.”

A widely used crypto market sentiment indicator has remained in uncertain territory despite improved clarity on trade relations between US and China, following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of a trade deal this week.

However, some crypto analysts suggest the announcement could soon have a positive impact on the crypto market.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index, which measures overall crypto market sentiment, posted a “Fear” score of 37 on Sunday, up 4 points from its “Fear” score of 33 on Saturday. The slight uptick comes as the White House released a comprehensive statement outlining the trade agreement reached between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

US and China trade developments watched closely by industry

“A massive victory that safeguards US economic strength and national security while putting American workers, farmers, and families first,” The White House said in a statement on Saturday.

The Crypto Fear & Greed Index has experienced volatility over the past three months. Source: Alternative.me

Developments between US and China trade have been closely watched by many in the crypto industry, as announcements of tariffs since the start of the Trump administration in January have often been linked to significant movements in the crypto market. 

After Trump announced a 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs on April 9, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index score surged over the next 24 hours, climbing from “Extreme Fear” score of 18 to a “Fear” score of 39 the following day.

Most recently, Trump’s threat of 100% tariffs against China was blamed for the recent crypto market crash, which saw $19 billion liquidated over just 24 hours on Oct. 11. 

The crypto market has struggled to recover since then. In an X post on Saturday, Michael van de Poppe, founder of MN Trading Capital, said that the day would be looked back on as one of the “bottom days in hindsight.”

Market still in “early stage” of bull run, says analyst

“That’s why we’re currently still at an early stage of the bull cycle on Altcoins and Bitcoin,” van de Poppe said.

The White House said the US will maintain its suspension of “heightened reciprocal tariffs on Chinese imports” until Nov. 10, 2026.

Related: Bitcoin starts $100K ‘capitulation’ as BTC price metric sees big volatility

Crypto trader Ash Crypto said, “This certainty is Bullish for markets.” Echoing a similar sentiment, crypto trader 0xNobler said it was “GIGA BULLISH NEWS.” 

The recent trade deal has yet to show any noticeable impact on the crypto market. Bitcoin (BTC) is trading at $110,354 and Ether (ETH) at $3,895, up 0.26% and 0.84% respectively over the past 24 hours, according to CoinMarketCap.

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