Whale Bets and Rising Futures Could Boost Avalanche (AVAX) Momentum Near $35, But Overbought Signals May Prompt Pullback

• Whales placed >$19M in AVAX futures longs

• Open interest remains above $1B while average funding rate is modest (0.0097).

• RSI 71.37 and weakening volume point to short-term pullback risk if $35 does not break.

AVAX futures surge: leveraged longs top $19M, but RSI overbought near $35 — monitor volume and spot demand. Read on for data-driven takeaways.

What is driving the recent AVAX futures rally?

A surge in large leveraged positions and sustained open interest has driven the AVAX futures rally. Whales and high-leverage traders opened multi-million-dollar long positions, while aggregated open interest stayed above $1B and funding rates remained modest, indicating bullish bias without extreme overheating.

Which whale trades moved the market?

On 23 September, address 0xb2ca opened a 5x long on 514,906 AVAX (estimated $17.2M), showing sizable exposure and an early unrealized gain of about $920K. Separately, advisor @cryptogle opened a 10x long on 66,479 AVAX (approx. $2.2M). These trades account for the majority of the reported leveraged inflows.

Big bets light up AVAX Futures

Whale trades have put Avalanche back on the map. Large leverage entries concentrated on the 23rd of September pushed futures positioning markedly higher in a short window.

Data points: 0xb2ca’s 514,906 AVAX 5x long (~$17.2M) and a 10x 66,479 AVAX (~$2.2M) position together represent roughly $19.4M in leveraged long exposure. Source: X (plain text)

How healthy are derivatives indicators for AVAX?

Open interest and funding show constructive positioning. Aggregated OI stayed above $1B with an uptick in leveraged positions since 18 September. Average funding rate at ~0.0097 suggests net-long tilt but not extreme crowding, lowering immediate liquidation risk compared with overheated markets.

Source: Coinalyze (plain text)

Why could AVAX be at short-term risk despite bullish flows?

Technical momentum is strong but buyer follow-through is weakening. AVAX traded near $34.45 at press time with an RSI of 71.37, indicating overbought conditions. MACD (2.48) remains above the signal line (2.10), confirming momentum, yet volume trends have softened—raising the chance of a short corrective pullback if $35 resistance fails.

Source: Coinalyze (plain text)

Source: TradingView (plain text)

Frequently Asked Questions

Are whales pushing AVAX to new highs?

Large leveraged longs have increased upward pressure and helped reclaim recent highs, but broader participation from spot buyers is needed to sustain a breakout above $35 and push to new multi-week highs.

How risky are current AVAX long positions?

Risk is moderate: funding rates are modest (0.0097) and OI > $1B, which suggests conviction but not extreme crowding. Overbought RSI (~71) and falling volume increase the chance of short-term consolidation or pullback.

Key Takeaways

• Whale exposure: >$19M in leveraged longs shows concentrated bullish bets.
• Derivatives health: OI > $1B with neutral funding rate — constructive but watchful.
• Technical caution: RSI > 70 and weakening volume make $35 a critical level for follow-through.

Conclusion

AVAX futures show renewed bullish conviction driven by large leveraged entries, while derivatives metrics remain broadly constructive. However, technical indicators signal overbought conditions and lower volume, meaning a convincing break above $35—supported by spot demand—is necessary for a sustained advance. Monitor open interest, funding rates, and volume for the next directional cues. COINOTAG will continue to track on-chain flows and derivatives metrics.