What Do Bitcoin Options Data Indicate? Details on the Current Market Situation!

• The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US seems almost inevitable, as the Bitcoin price rose to $47,000 on Monday, January 8th.
• Bitcoin hitting a new peak, especially during US trading hours, raises expectations for the impending ETF and intensifies the FOMO sentiment.
• Many analysts expected the approval of the Bitcoin ETF to trigger a sell-the-news event, causing BTC price to drop below $40,000.

The inevitable approval of the spot Bitcoin ETF in the US is shaping investor sentiments: What’s the status of option signals?

Current State of Bitcoin Options Data

The approval of the first spot Bitcoin ETF in the US seems almost inevitable, as the Bitcoin price rose to $47,000 on Monday, January 8th. However, the Bitcoin rally indicates a consolidation tendency around $46,500.

Bitcoin hitting a new peak, especially during US trading hours, raises expectations for the impending ETF and intensifies the FOMO sentiment. Still, the options market provides complex signals. Short-term Implied Volatilities (IVs), the ATM (At-The-Money) option IV for June 11th, showed a sharp decline, dropping below 90% with a decrease of over 30% in just a few hours.

Additionally, despite reaching new highs, on-chain transactions remained relatively limited and were often dominated by call sales and put purchases. This trend raises questions about the cautious stance of institutional investors while the ETF market is in peak momentum.

These nuanced signals in the options market and strategic moves by institutional players add an element of uncertainty to the future trajectory of the ETF market, prompting market participants to closely monitor potential changes in sentiment and market dynamics.

Are BTC Whales Selling?

Many analysts expected the approval of the Bitcoin ETF to trigger a sell-the-news event, causing BTC price to drop below $40,000. Additionally, whale movements are currently showing concerning signals. A notable development highlights the strategic move of a smart whale in the cryptocurrency market.

Today, after Bitcoin surpassed $45,000, the whale deposited a significant amount of 1,000 BTC, valued at $22.47 million, into Binance. This move is consistent with a general trend where the same whale deposited a total of 4,000 BTC, valued at $178.7 million, into Binance over the last two weeks. Importantly, the average price of these strategic deposits during the specified two-week period was $44,673. What makes these transactions significant is that the whale strategically sold at high prices in each case, demonstrating a calculated and opportunistic approach to capitalize on favorable market conditions.