- The possibility of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF is being evaluated by analysts, along with its potential impacts and expectations.
- With only nine days left until the SEC’s deadline to approve or reject spot Ethereum ETFs, the likelihood of approval has significantly decreased.
- Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas has stated that he does not expect approval before the end of 2025, and the majority of investors also do not anticipate ETF approval.
An in-depth analysis of the potential approval of a spot Ethereum ETF by the SEC, its impacts, and investor expectations. The article provides expert insights and perspectives on the matter.
Low Probability of Ethereum ETF Approval
Quinn Thompson, the founder of crypto hedge fund Lekker Capital, also told DL News that the likelihood of Ethereum ETFs being approved is almost non-existent. Thompson suggested that the common market phenomenon of “buy the news, sell the rumor” has already occurred with Ethereum.
Impact of Rejection on Ethereum’s Price
According to Thompson, the “buy the news, sell the rumor” event has already taken place in Ethereum, and the possibility of the ETFs not being approved has already been priced in. Thompson argued that the rejection of Ethereum ETFs could potentially lead to a price increase.
Only Grayscale Could Change the Situation
10X Research also evaluated the probability of Ethereum ETFs being approved. Markus Thielen, the founder of 10x Research, stated that the likelihood of approval is very low. Thielen noted that in the face of the increasing possibility of rejection, investors’ focus has shifted to Grayscale, a significant player following its legal victories against the SEC.
Grayscale’s Unique Position in the Market
Thielen highlighted that despite charging higher fees compared to competitors like Blackrock, Grayscale’s unique position in the market should be considered. In the event of rejection, only Grayscale could potentially sue the SEC and rectify the situation.
Conclusion
While the likelihood of the SEC approving a spot Ethereum ETF is currently low, the market has already priced in this possibility. Despite this, the potential impact of a rejection could lead to a price increase for Ethereum. The unique position of Grayscale in the market could also potentially influence the outcome.
