XRP Breakout at $3.10 Remains Uncertain as On-Chain Activity Drops; $3.40 Rally or $2.50 Pullback Possible

• XRP breakout unconfirmed until a sustained close above $3.10 with rising volume and on‑chain activity.

• Neutral RSI and falling transaction counts weaken conviction for a durable uptrend.

• On‑chain transactions fell from over 11.7 million to markedly lower levels over two days, signaling reduced network activity.

Meta description: XRP breakout remains unconfirmed after a failed close above $3.10; monitor on‑chain activity and daily closes for confirmation. Read the full analysis now.

What is the status of the XRP breakout?

XRP breakout attempts remain inconclusive after the token briefly rose above the descending daily resistance near $3.10 then retreated under $3.08. Short-term momentum is mixed: a decisive close above $3.10 with increased volume and on‑chain activity would validate bullish expectations; failure would imply renewed downside pressure.

How does on‑chain activity affect the XRP breakout?

On‑chain metrics offer a direct read on participant conviction. Between Sept. 12 and two days later, recorded transactions on the XRP Ledger declined from over 11.7 million to much lower levels, reducing support for a sustained rally. Weakening transactions during a breakout attempt typically signal limited buyer follow‑through and heighten the risk of a bull trap.

Price analysis

Despite a brief breach of the descending resistance, chart structure and momentum indicators suggest vulnerability. The $3.00–$3.10 band is now a critical decision zone. A persistent close above $3.10 would open a path toward retesting the annual highs and possibly $3.40.

Conversely, if XRP fails to reclaim and hold $3.10, immediate support sits at the orange EMA near $2.81, followed by the 200‑day moving average around $2.50. The RSI is near neutral, indicating momentum does not clearly favor bulls.

XRP/USDT Chart by TradingView

On‑chain indicators compound technical uncertainty. The dramatic drop in transaction volume after Sept. 12 points to waning network activity during the breakout attempt. Strong, sustainable rallies are usually accompanied by higher transaction counts and on‑chain engagement; the observed decline weakens the bullish narrative.

XRP movement scenarios

• Bullish scenario: XRP quickly regains and closes above $3.10 with expanding trading volume and a visible uptick in on‑chain transactions. This would increase the probability of a retest of higher levels, including $3.40 and the recent annual highs.

• Bearish scenario: Failure to overcome $3.10 will likely confirm the move as a false breakout. Price may drop toward the EMA at $2.81 and potentially to the 200‑day MA at $2.50 if selling intensifies and on‑chain activity keeps declining.

Traders should watch the next several daily closes and on‑chain trends closely. Confirmation requires sustained closes above resistance paired with rising network activity; absent that, downside targets regain relevance.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will a close above $3.10 guarantee a sustained XRP rally?

A close above $3.10 improves the probability of a sustained rally but does not guarantee it. Confirmation requires higher trading volume and a rebound in on‑chain activity; otherwise, the move could still fail and reverse.

What on‑chain signals should traders monitor for confirmation?

Traders should monitor transaction counts, active addresses, and gross ledger activity on the XRP Ledger. A meaningful increase in transactions and active addresses during a breakout is a positive confirmation signal.

Key Takeaways

• Breakout status: The breakout above $3.10 is unconfirmed after a quick retreat below $3.08.
• On‑chain risk: Transaction counts dropped from over 11.7 million to much lower levels, weakening breakout conviction.
• Actionable insight: Wait for a sustained daily close above $3.10 with rising volume and on‑chain activity before assuming a bullish trend.

Conclusion

The current XRP price action reflects a critical inflection point. Short‑term direction hinges on whether the market can sustain a close above $3.10 accompanied by higher volume and improving on‑chain metrics. Market participants should prioritize confirmation via daily closes and ledger activity before committing to directional positions.