XRP Could Be Poised For Q4 Upside After Coinbase Cuts Reserves And Smart Money Accumulates

• Coinbase reduced XRP cold wallets from 52 to 6, cutting reserves by ~90% in three months.

• XRP’s Q3 gains were concentrated in July (≈33%), while SOL and other majors logged steadier monthly returns.

• Open Interest (OI) for SOL is near ATHs; XRP OI remains subdued, signaling tighter positioning and lower derivatives risk.

XRP price outlook: Ripple shows tightened supply and concentrated gains; monitor Coinbase reserves and ETF momentum for a possible Q4 breakout. Read more for data and analysis.

What is the current XRP price outlook?

The XRP price outlook is cautiously bullish: concentrated July gains and a substantial reduction in exchange-held supply have tightened the market, while still-muted derivatives activity reduces blowoff risk and may precede a measured rally into Q4.

How has XRP performed versus other top-cap coins this quarter?

Among top-cap coins, XRP posted the weakest quarterly return at 33.64% year-to-date for Q3, while Solana (SOL) delivered over 50% ROI. Nearly 100% of XRP’s Q3 gains occurred in July, peaking around $3.60.

By contrast, SOL averaged ~11% monthly across Q3, reflecting steadier accumulation. This concentration in XRP suggests the move was driven by episodic demand rather than broad-based momentum.

Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)

Why is XRP attracting attention despite weaker quarterly returns?

Market structure and supply dynamics are driving attention. Coinbase’s custody adjustments — reportedly shrinking from 52 cold wallets holding ~970M XRP to 6 wallets holding ~99M XRP — have materially reduced visible exchange supply.

With on‑chain custody concentrated off-exchange, holders and institutions may find available circulating supply tighter, which historically amplifies price moves when demand re‑emerges. This dynamic, combined with renewed ETF chatter for spot products, explains why investors monitor XRP closely despite its concentrated Q3 gains.

Whale exodus from Coinbase tightens XRP supply

September opened amid ETF-related speculative flows across altcoins. DOGE and XRP were highlighted for potential U.S. spot ETF inclusion; DOGE’s monthly gain outpaced XRP’s, illustrating capital rotation toward high-volatility plays.

According to public on‑chain trackers (XRPwallets referenced as plain text), Coinbase’s visible cold wallet count and balances fell sharply over three months. This pattern implies a substantial transfer of XRP off centralized custody — a supply tightening event that can support higher prices if demand resumes.

Source: X (XRPwallets)

How do derivatives and open interest affect XRP’s next leg?

Open Interest (OI) for Solana is near all-time highs, indicating strong derivatives engagement. XRP’s OI remains comparatively muted below $10B, suggesting less leverage and lower immediate liquidation risk.

A subdued derivatives market often precedes larger, cleaner rallies because moves are driven by spot accumulation rather than forced liquidations. If ETF-related flows or institutional demand increase, XRP could advance with limited derivatives-driven volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did Coinbase reduce its XRP reserves by?

Public on‑chain trackers indicate Coinbase’s cold wallet count fell from 52 to 6 wallets, with balances declining from roughly 970 million XRP to about 99 million XRP — a reduction near 90% over three months.

What should traders watch to confirm a sustainable XRP rally?

Watch sustained spot volume, rising exchange inflows reversal, increasing Open Interest, and ETF-related institutional announcements. Confirming moves often show steady accumulation rather than single-day spikes.

Key Takeaways

• Supply tightening: Coinbase’s reported custody reductions materially lower visible exchange supply.
• Concentrated gains: Most Q3 XRP upside concentrated in July; follow-consistent monthly returns are preferable for durable trends.
• Derivatives caution: Low XRP OI reduces forced-volatility risk; watch OI growth as a momentum confirmation signal.

Conclusion

Ripple (XRP) presents a cautiously bullish technical and fundamental setup: tightened visible supply, concentrated past gains, and muted derivatives exposure create a controlled environment for a potential Q4 leg. Monitor spot volume, Open Interest, and institutional ETF developments for confirmation. Publication: COINOTAG — updated 2025-09-16.