XRP Could Replay Q4 Pattern as LTH Profit-Taking and Support Flip May Signal Next Breakout

• XRP price shows structured distribution into consolidation after $375M LTH profit spike on July 24.

• On-chain realized gains topped $2 billion, indicating significant long-term holder activity and potential support formation.

• Technical setup and historical Q4 patterns suggest an 80% upside scenario is possible if risk-on conditions return.

XRP price outlook: Ripple consolidates after July profit-taking; on-chain data shows $2B realized gains. Read analysis and support levels for a potential Q4 breakout.

Published: 2025-08-21 | Author: COINOTAG

What is the XRP price outlook after July’s pullback?

XRP price is consolidating after July’s intraday top and subsequent pullback, with long-term holder (LTH) profit-taking concentrated around $3.55. On-chain realized gains and a validated bid at $3 indicate a support flip possibility that could set the stage for another Q4-style rally if market sentiment shifts.

How did on-chain data explain the July dip?

On-chain metrics show LTH realized gains spiking to roughly $375 million on July 24, contributing to realized gains above $2 billion during the pullback phase. This distribution pattern is consistent with LTHs offloading into strength, which often precedes consolidation and a re-accumulation phase.

Ripple’s [XRP] price action continues to mirror its Q4 cycle. LTH selling around cost basis created a large realized gains event that coincided with an intraday 10.33% drop, forming the longest red candle in over three months.

On-chain context: realized gains > $2,000,000,000; single-day LTH spike $375,000,000; intraday drop 10.33% from $3.55.

Source: Glassnode

Why could a support flip lead to another breakout?

Support flips occur when previous resistance turns into new demand. For XRP price, a validated bounce off $3 after the July dip indicates buyers defended that level. Historically, similar flips preceded multi-week runs as supply dried up and momentum returned.

Last year the token flipped $2 into support, which preceded a 60%+ rally to $3.35 by mid-January. If the current structure repeats, a November–style leg could unfold under favorable market conditions.

What are the near-term technical levels to watch?

– Immediate support: $3.00 (validated by a 6.45% bounce).
– Near resistance: $3.55 (site of LTH cost basis and realized gain spike).
– Upside scenario: $5.40 target implies ~80% from current consolidation levels.

Source: TradingView (XRP/USDT)

How should readers interpret this analysis?

This piece reports on price structure, realized on-chain metrics, and historical patterns. It does not constitute investment advice. Use the highlighted support and resistance levels to form your own view, and cross-check with exchange order books and liquidity metrics.

Frequently Asked Questions

What triggered the $375 million LTH sell-off on July 24?

Long-term holders reached cost basis near $3.55, prompting concentrated realizations. That single-day activity coincided with a 10.33% intraday drop and represents profit-taking typical at cyclical tops.

How reliable are realized gains as a sell signal?

Realized gains are a reliable indicator of distributed supply and can precede consolidation phases; they should be used alongside liquidity, order-book depth, and sentiment measures for a full view.

Key Takeaways

• Structured distribution: LTH profit-taking (~$2B realized gains) shaped the July pullback.
• Support validation: A 6.45% bounce at $3 reinforced immediate demand and a potential flip level.
• Upside potential: Historical Q4 patterns and current setup imply an 80% scenario to $5.40 under risk-on conditions.

Conclusion

Short-term, XRP price is in consolidation following concentrated LTH profit-taking and realized gains. On-chain signals and historical Q4 behavior provide a clear framework: if $3 remains supported and market sentiment turns positive, Ripple could stage another sizable leg higher. Monitor realized gains, support at $3, and buying pressure for confirmation.