XRP Could See Potential Rally to $3.20 as Price Breaks Out of Pennant Amid Rising Futures Interest

• XRP’s recent breakout from a weekly pennant pattern signals a potential 40% price surge, driven by rising futures open interest and positive regulatory developments.

• Key catalysts include Ripple’s US banking license application, SEC approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund conversion, and strategic partnerships enhancing cross-border payment infrastructure.

• According to COINOTAG, XRP’s futures open interest has surged by 30% in 10 days, reflecting renewed institutional interest and increased liquidity in the market.

XRP breaks out of a weekly pennant with a 40% upside target of $3.20 amid rising futures open interest and strong institutional demand.

Futures Open Interest Surge Supports XRP’s Upward Momentum

The recent increase in XRP’s futures open interest (OI) is a critical indicator of growing institutional participation and market confidence. Over the past 10 days, XRP’s OI climbed by 30% to $4.75 billion, coinciding with a 7.2% intraday price rise to $2.31. This uptick suggests that derivatives traders are positioning for a sustained rally, which typically enhances liquidity and price stability.

Several fundamental developments have contributed to this bullish sentiment. Ripple’s application for a US banking license could pave the way for broader adoption and regulatory acceptance, while the SEC’s approval of Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund conversion into a spot ETF has bolstered investor confidence. Additionally, Ripple’s partnership with OpenPayd facilitates faster, compliant cross-border payments, further strengthening XRP’s utility and market appeal.

Historical Context and Institutional Sentiment

Historical data underscores the importance of rising OI as a precursor to price rallies. For instance, during the 2024 tariff pause announcement by the US administration, XRP’s OI surged by 91%, accompanied by a 65% price increase. The current environment mirrors this pattern, with a bullish long/short ratio of 68% across exchanges, indicating dominant long positions despite inherent liquidation risks. This ratio highlights a growing institutional conviction in XRP’s upside potential.

Technical Breakout from Pennant Pattern Sets Stage for 40% Rally

XRP’s breakout from a multimonth pennant on the weekly chart marks a significant technical milestone. The breakout above the descending trendline at $2.21 on July 3 signals the end of consolidation and the onset of upward momentum. The measured move target, derived from the pennant’s height, projects a price near $3.20, representing a 40% gain from current levels.

Technical analysts, including the pseudonymous Best Analysts, have identified a “bull pennant” on the daily chart with an upside target of $3.40, reinforcing the bullish outlook. This technical setup, combined with ongoing whale accumulation and institutional demand for a potential spot ETF, supports the case for a sustained rally.

Regulatory Clarity and Market Dynamics

Improving regulatory clarity remains a pivotal factor influencing XRP’s price trajectory. The SEC’s recent actions, including the approval of spot ETF conversions, signal a more accommodative stance toward crypto assets. This evolving regulatory landscape reduces uncertainty and encourages institutional inflows, which are critical for maintaining upward price momentum. Furthermore, Ripple’s strategic initiatives to expand payment infrastructure enhance XRP’s real-world utility, attracting both retail and institutional investors.

Conclusion

XRP’s breakout from a weekly pennant pattern, supported by a surge in futures open interest and positive regulatory developments, positions the altcoin for a potential 40% rally to $3.20. Institutional demand, coupled with improving market infrastructure and regulatory clarity, underpins this bullish outlook. Investors should monitor futures OI and regulatory updates closely to gauge the sustainability of this momentum.