XRP shows signs of forming a market bottom, with Elliott Wave analysis indicating an upcoming fifth impulse wave that could push prices beyond $4, supported by record-high outflows from exchanges signaling strong accumulation.
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XRP’s Elliott Wave pattern suggests completion of corrective wave 4, setting up for a final bullish impulse to $6.75 or higher.
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On-chain data reveals historic net outflows from exchanges, reflecting intense investor accumulation and bullish sentiment.
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Long-term holder NUPL metric is correcting from near-euphoric levels, potentially resetting for renewed upward momentum without repeated cycle highs.
XRP price prediction points to bullish potential as Elliott Wave and on-chain metrics align for a rally. Discover key signals and expert insights driving this outlook in 2025.
What is the Elliott Wave outlook for XRP price?
The Elliott Wave theory applied to XRP indicates that the cryptocurrency is in the midst of corrective wave 4, potentially forming a market bottom similar to April’s levels, which could precede a powerful fifth impulse wave targeting prices above $4. Developed by R.N. Elliott in 1938, this principle identifies recurring wave patterns in market prices driven by investor psychology, using Fibonacci ratios to forecast turning points. Recent analysis by trader EGRAG highlights how this setup could propel XRP to $6.75, and in an extended scenario, up to $18.25.
How do on-chain metrics support a bullish XRP prediction?
On-chain metrics provide robust evidence for a bullish XRP outlook, with exchange net position changes showing unprecedented outflows starting in late October, according to data from Glassnode. These negative values, representing more XRP leaving exchanges than entering, reached the highest levels on record, indicating widespread accumulation by investors and reducing available supply for selling. This aligns with the Elliott Wave forecast, suggesting an explosive rally could follow as supply tightens and demand builds. Expert analyses, such as those from Glassnode, emphasize that such outflows historically precede significant price surges, reinforcing the potential for XRP to break out from current consolidation. In July 2025, XRP hit $3.66 amid similar metrics, but the current cycle’s reset in long-term holder net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) at 0.748—near but not exceeding euphoric thresholds—avoids the typical post-peak downturn, allowing for healthier upward progression. However, while the data leans bullish, market dynamics require monitoring for any shifts in inflow trends that could signal invalidation below key support levels.
Source: EGRAG Crypto on X
The Elliott Wave Principle remains a cornerstone of technical analysis, applicable to cryptocurrencies like XRP due to their volatility mirroring broader market psychology. Elliott’s 8-wave pattern, comprising five impulse waves upward followed by three corrective waves, uses Fibonacci extensions to project targets. For XRP, the ongoing correction in wave 4 appears to be nearing completion, much like the April 2025 bottom that preceded prior gains. If validated, this positions investors for substantial returns, though confirmation awaits a decisive breakout above recent highs.
XRP netflows out of exchanges at historic highs for a month
Source: Glassnode
The XRP exchange net position change metric, which tracks the net flow of tokens between inflows and outflows across major platforms, has displayed exceptionally negative values since mid-October 2025. This sustained outflow pattern, the most intense in Glassnode’s historical dataset, underscores a shift toward long-term holding rather than short-term trading. Such dynamics typically fuel upward price pressure by constraining supply, particularly when paired with technical indicators like the Elliott Wave completion. Investors interpreting this as a bullish confirmation should note that previous instances of high outflows correlated with rallies exceeding 100% in subsequent months.
Source: Glassnode
Complementing the outflow data, the long-term holder (LTH) NUPL metric reveals a correction from elevated profit levels observed at the end of 2024, peaking just below true euphoria at 0.748 in July 2025 during XRP’s surge to $3.66. Unlike prior cycles where euphoric readings led to prolonged bear markets, this reset appears constructive, preventing overextension and setting the stage for sustained gains. Historical precedents from Glassnode show that NUPL corrections below 0.5 often precede bull runs, as seen in 2021 when it triggered a multi-fold increase. For XRP, this combination of metrics—outflows and NUPL reset—bolsters the Elliott Wave bullish thesis, though vigilance for downside risks below $2 support remains essential to validate the scenario.
Frequently Asked Questions
Is XRP forming a market bottom based on Elliott Wave analysis?
Yes, current Elliott Wave counts suggest XRP is concluding corrective wave 4, mirroring the April 2025 bottom, with wave 5 potentially driving prices to $6.75 or more, as outlined by analyst EGRAG using Fibonacci projections from R.N. Elliott’s principles.
What do XRP on-chain metrics indicate for future price movement?
XRP on-chain metrics, including record exchange outflows since October 2025 and a resetting LTH NUPL, point to accumulation and reduced selling pressure, historically leading to rallies when combined with technical patterns like Elliott Waves.
Key Takeaways
- XRP’s potential market bottom: Elliott Wave analysis indicates corrective wave 4 is underway, likely followed by a fifth impulse wave exceeding $4, offering significant upside for holders.
- Historic exchange outflows: Net position changes show the highest outflows on record from Glassnode data, signaling strong accumulation and bullish supply dynamics.
- NUPL reset for growth: Long-term holder profits correcting from near-euphoric levels provide a healthy foundation, avoiding cycle-top pitfalls and supporting renewed momentum.
Conclusion
The convergence of XRP Elliott Wave analysis and on-chain metrics like exchange outflows and LTH NUPL corrections paints a compelling bullish XRP outlook for 2025, potentially replicating past bottoms for substantial gains. As investor psychology aligns with these patterns, staying informed on key levels will be crucial. Monitor developments closely and consider diversified strategies to capitalize on emerging opportunities in the cryptocurrency market.
