XRP price faces near-term downside risk: technicals show a breakdown beneath the $2.7–$2.8 demand zone with liquidation clusters around $2.67, increasing the probability of a ~22% decline toward $1.9–$1.6 if daily closes stay below $2.28.
-
Key support to watch: $2.7 (short-term) and $1.9 / $1.6 (primary downside targets)
-
Breakdown beneath $2.28 on a daily close raises the odds of a 22% move lower.
-
Liquidation heatmap shows a short-cluster at $2.67; weekly structure remains bullish unless price falls below $1.6 (historical swing).
XRP price faces downside risk with technicals pointing to a possible 22% drop; read Coinotag’s analysis of support levels, liquidation heatmap and trade triggers.
Published: 2025-10-16 — Updated: 2025-10-16 | By COINOTAG
How does XRP price technical structure point to a potential 22% drop?
XRP price has broken beneath a multi-month demand zone at $2.7–$2.8, leaving a marked imbalance from $2.5–$2.77 and concentrated short-liquidation levels near $2.67. If daily closes remain below $2.28, technical indicators and structure suggest a likely retracement toward $1.9 and $1.6.
What are the key support and resistance zones for XRP?
The primary short-term support is at $2.7, with a psychological floor at $2.00. Secondary supports are $1.9 and $1.6, which correspond to prior swing lows and weekly structure tests. Resistance lies at the reclaimed demand zone of $2.8 and the critical $3.10 local high—recovery above those would reduce downside risk.
Technical analysis shows XRP could see a 22% price drop
Weekly swing points remain visible at approximately $0.486 (low) and $3.4 (high), reflecting the longer-term bullish structure created by the rally from $1.61 to $3.66 that began in April. However, the more immediate daily structure has turned bearish following the breakdown beneath the $2.7–$2.8 demand zone.
The daily internal structure shows a local high at $3.10 and a local low at $2.7. Sellers recently overcame bids defending $2.7–$2.8, creating a sizeable imbalance between $2.5 and $2.77. Momentum indicators — including moving averages and the Awesome Oscillator — are aligned bearish, though the Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) rose to +0.05 at press time, signaling some buying pressure that is likely insufficient to reverse the downtrend without stronger volume.
Source: XRP/USDT on TradingView (chart analysis by COINOTAG)
Given the current structure, a daily close under $2.28 materially increases the probability of the described downside scenario. Under that outcome, target levels to monitor are $1.9 (first downside target) and $1.6 (structural invalidation point for the prior bullish weekly swing). If price reclaims $2.8 as a demand zone, swing traders may reconsider and look for a move above $3 as confirmation of renewed bullish intent.
What impact could the liquidation levels overhead have on XRP?
Source: CoinGlass (liquidation heatmap referenced as plain text)
The liquidation heatmap highlights a cluster of short-liquidation orders around $2.67. Such clusters can act as a magnet: if price moves lower, stop-run dynamics and forced liquidations may briefly accelerate selling into the imbalance zone near $2.5–$2.77. That dynamic increases the likelihood of a retest of $2.7 in the near term and supports the thesis that a bounce could be followed by further downside if supply at $2.7–$2.8 remains unabsorbed.
Macro correlations also matter: a decisive Bitcoin move above $117,000 would typically indicate market-wide bullishness and could spur a recovery in altcoins, including XRP, toward and above $3.1. Conversely, broader market weakness would likely amplify XRP’s downward momentum.
Analyst note: “The most reliable confirmation of risk-off for XRP will be a sustained daily close below $2.28 and persistent selling volume,” said a COINOTAG market analyst. This view is rooted in chart structure, observed liquidation clusters, and classic market microstructure behavior.
Disclaimer: The information presented does not constitute financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice and is solely the writer’s opinion.
Frequently Asked Questions
What level must XRP break to confirm a bearish swing?
A daily close below $2.28 would confirm a bearish short-term structure and materially increase the likelihood of a move toward $1.9 and potentially $1.6, which are the next structural supports on weekly timeframes. Trade size and risk management should reflect this confirmation.
Will XRP drop to $1.9 in the coming weeks?
It is possible if sellers maintain control and price closes daily below $2.28. Liquidation clusters and the imbalance left from $2.5–$2.77 create conditions that could accelerate a move to $1.9; however, market correlation with Bitcoin and volume conditions remain key determinants.
Key Takeaways
- Support broken: The $2.7–$2.8 demand zone has been breached, leaving an imbalance at $2.5–$2.77 that favors sellers.
- Liquidation risk: A short-liquidation cluster at $2.67 increases the chance of a retest of $2.7 and potential follow-through to $1.9–$1.6.
- Trading action: Watch for a daily close below $2.28 to confirm the bearish scenario; reclaiming $2.8 would be the primary bullish signal.
Conclusion
COINOTAG’s analysis of the XRP price structure indicates elevated downside risk while weekly swings remain intact above $1.6. Traders should monitor the $2.28 and $2.8 levels closely, as these will determine near-term direction. Continue to follow COINOTAG for updated chart-based coverage and risk-managed trade ideas.
