- Charles Edwards presents a compelling argument that 2024 could potentially be a pivotal year for Bitcoin, offering the highest returns in its four-year cycle.
- Edwards states, “Today’s markets move incredibly fast and look to the future. Pricing begins as soon as macro announcements are made.”
- While addressing the widespread argument that halving is already priced in, Edwards counters by saying, “If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Bitcoin’s history, it’s that halving is never priced in.”
Capriole Investments’ new report highlights the critical importance of the year 2024 for Bitcoin, with three significant catalysts affecting BTC’s price!
Capriole Shares Predictions for Bitcoin in the Coming Year
In a comprehensive report recently released by Capriole Investments, Charles Edwards makes a strong case for 2024 being a significant year that could potentially offer the highest returns in Bitcoin’s four-year cycle. The report explores various aspects of Bitcoin’s future, including its role as an inflation hedge, the upcoming Halving event, and the impact of ETFs that are likely to be approved soon.
Edwards begins by addressing doubts about Bitcoin’s performance as an inflation hedge. He notes, “Bitcoin has a tough reputation in 2021 for its performance amid rising inflation.” Contrary to popular belief, Edwards states, “Bitcoin was a significant inflation hedge; it was when it needed to be.”
He emphasizes Bitcoin’s impressive performance from the first quarter of 2020 to the first quarter of 2021, showing a remarkable 1000% increase, surpassing all other asset classes. He attributes this performance as a direct response to the Federal Reserve’s multi-trillion-dollar QE packages announced in March 2020. Edwards remarks, “Today’s markets move incredibly fast and look to the future. Pricing begins as soon as macro announcements are made.”
Comparing Bitcoin to traditional hedges, Edwards highlights the uniqueness of Bitcoin’s performance during liquidity bursts. He states, “There is no doubt that Bitcoin has been successful as the best inflation hedge during crises,” and he adds, “There is no second-best. Bitcoin was the best inflation hedge we’ve seen.”
The Significance of the Bitcoin Halving Event
The second significant catalyst for Bitcoin is the upcoming Halving event scheduled for April 2024. Edwards underscores the seriousness of this event, stating, “The Bitcoin Halving in April will reduce Bitcoin’s supply growth rate to 0.8% annually, lower than gold (1.6%), for the first time.” This means that “Bitcoin will become harder than gold for the first time in April 2024.”
While addressing the common argument that halving is already priced in, Edwards counters by saying, “If there’s one thing we’ve learned from Bitcoin’s history, it’s that halving is never priced in.” Additionally, Edwards draws parallels with previous cycles and notes that many on-chain metrics indicate that the current cycle closely mirrors those of 2019 and 2015.
Thirdly, Edwards highlights the clarity brought by the CFTC’s classification of Bitcoin as a commodity in 2021. He also mentions the significant announcement of BlackRock’s Bitcoin ETF application and the directive for the federal appeals court to reconsider the rejection of the Grayscale spot ETF. The baseline expectation is that the SEC will approve the spot ETF in October 2023 or January 2024.
Discussing the potential impact of ETFs on Bitcoin, Edwards draws parallels with gold, pointing out a significant bull run that followed the approval of the Gold ETF in 2004. He states, “When the Gold ETF was approved, it was followed by a significant bull run that delivered a massive 350% return over seven years,” and he concludes, “So, in the very near future, we have three incredible catalysts.”
In conclusion, Edwards presents an optimistic yet cautious outlook. While he acknowledges short-term bullish signals, he remains optimistic about the long-term perspective. He states, “In Bitcoin’s four-year cycles, there is typically a 12-18 month period where around 90% of the returns occur, followed by 2-3 years of sideways and bearish movements,” and he adds, “The single most profitable year of this cycle will be 2024, and I believe the data supports this thesis.”
