- QCP, which expects more volatility in the future, believes that the macro environment will become much more unpredictable in the coming weeks.
- Despite the stock market lawsuits, the cryptocurrency market sensitivity continues to remain resilient against pressure.
- The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be announced on June 13th, and the next step in interest rates will be determined with the Federal Reserve’s policy update.
As developments and SEC lawsuits in the US increase uncertainty in the market, we may be entering a week with high volatility.
Developments in the US Increase Uncertainty
QCP Capital states that the events following the SEC lawsuits against Binance and Coinbase exchanges have not yet fully settled.
Expecting more volatility in the future, QCP believes that the macro environment will become much more unpredictable in the coming weeks. However, QCP argues that the SEC and Chairman Gary Gensler’s fight against cryptocurrencies will not cause a mass price drop, contrary to some fears.
QCP stated, “Gensler and the SEC allies have continued the ‘security’ threat to the sector. But as we have previously stated, BTC or ETH will continue to see the SEC as a weak competitor – especially since it is clear that the ‘security’ definition will not apply to either of them.” and added;
“As the exaggerated complaints presented by the SEC increase, it becomes clear that they are only aimed at creating sensational headlines. Ultimately, Gensler has proven to be the most capitalist of previous regulators.”
The issue that QCP warns about is that if the US Department of Justice or other institutions become involved, the situation could become more serious;
“We expect the Biden administration to continue to mudsling cryptocurrencies and even increase these activities during next year’s election season.”
It is observed that the cryptocurrency market sensitivity continues to remain resilient against pressure after the stock market lawsuits, and the Crypto Fear and Greed Index remains in the “neutral” zone at 50/100.
Bitcoin Enters a Volatile Week
Beyond the SEC, next week’s macro data reports can also present their own triggers. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for June will be announced on June 13th, and the next step in interest rates will be determined with the Federal Reserve’s policy update.
QCP said, “As we enter next week, a volatile macro week awaits us, such as the US CPI, June FOMC, and other major central bank meetings.”
This analysis also draws attention to changes in the Treasury General Account. These changes can potentially be an obstacle for risky assets by reducing liquidity in the monetary system. This theory is also considered by other well-known crypto figures, including former BitMEX CEO Arthur Hayes. Hayes has been following this since the beginning of 2023.
QCP’s optimistic outlook emerges as BTC/USD continues to hover near certain price support levels, especially the 200-week EMA should be considered.
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $26,500.
