APT Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

APT is stuck in a narrow range above the critical $0.79 support zone at the $0.81 level; while RSI at 24.67 giving an oversold signal creates bullish potential, the overall downtrend and BTC pressure also make the bearish scenario strong.

Current Market Situation

APT's current price is at the $0.81 level and has declined by %-2.75 in the last 24 hours. The daily range stayed between $0.79 - $0.87, while trading volume is moving at low levels of $122.51M. The overall trend is downward; the price remains below EMA20 ($1.00) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with the resistance level standing out at $1.08.

RSI at 24.67 is in oversold territory, which increases the likelihood of a short-term bounce. Although the MACD shows positive histogram formation as a bullish momentum signal, the short-term EMAs are aligned bearishly. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 4 strong levels were identified on 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: Each timeframe shows a balanced distribution of 1 support (S) and 1 resistance (R) (1D: 1S/1R, 3D: 1S/1R, 1W: 1S/0R). Critical support at $0.7900 (strength score 78/100), resistance at $0.8240 (88/100).

This structure indicates that the price has breakout potential in both directions; investors should monitor volume increases and indicator confirmations.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, the $0.8240 resistance level must first be clearly broken and close above it. If this breakout is supported by increasing trading volume (1.5-2 times the current volume), a bounce triggered by the oversold condition in RSI can be activated. Positive expansion of the MACD histogram and breaking above EMA20 ($1.00) will be key signals to strengthen momentum.

In MTF, holding the 1D and 3D supports ($0.79) is essential; strong support on 1W can support long-term recovery. Stability or slight recovery in BTC (e.g., approaching $65.398 resistance) can trigger an altcoin rally. In this scenario, the price is expected to test the $1.08 Supertrend resistance; if unsuccessful, the scenario becomes invalid and the risk of returning below $0.8240 increases.

Target Levels

First target $1.00 (EMA20), then $1.08 Supertrend resistance. In a strong breakout, the next target is $1.2035 (score 14/100, medium-term Fibonacci extension level). This level offers a %-48.7 potential return from the current $0.81. Invalidation level: Close below $0.7900 support (scenario invalidation).

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by the break of the $0.7900 support (78/100 strength); a close below this level with volume increase (such as bearish candlestick formations) accelerates downward momentum. The Supertrend's bearish signal and the price remaining below EMA20 increase short-term pressure. Even though RSI is oversold, negative divergence formation (if price makes new lows while RSI makes higher lows) confirms the downside.

In MTF, 1D/3D support breaks can create a chain reaction; although there is additional support on 1W, BTC's downtrend (Supertrend bearish) crushes altcoins. Macro risks (BTC dominance increase) strengthen the scenario. If no breakout occurs, $0.8240 resistance becomes invalidating.

Protection Levels

First protection after break below $0.79 is intermediate support at $0.70, then deep bearish target $0.1723 (score 22/100, long-term logarithmic support). This level carries a %-78.8 downside risk from the current price. Invalidation level: Close above $0.8240 resistance (bullish invalidation).

Which Scenario to Watch?

The decision point is the $0.79-$0.8240 range; a volume explosion (>%50 increase) determines the direction. For bull, watch RSI recovery >30 + positive MACD line crossover; for bear, RSI divergence + high-volume red candles. Daily closes are critical; trendline breaks on the 4-hour chart provide early warnings. In both scenarios, stop-loss levels ($0.79 for bull, $0.8240 for bear) are essential for risk management.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC is in a downtrend with a %-4.42 decline at $64,621; Supertrend bearish and main supports at $64,323, $61,533, $49,685. Resistances at $65,398, $68,196, $71,019. Altcoins like APT are highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); if BTC breaks below $64.3k, APT's $0.79 support will be tested and the bearish scenario dominates. If BTC breaks $65.4k resistance, it paves the way for APT upside with altcoin rotation. Monitor BTC dominance: Increase crushes alts, decrease triggers rally.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

APT is in delicate balance; both scenarios are equally likely at the $0.81 pivot. Monitoring points: Volume, RSI/MACD confirmations, BTC movements, and MTF levels. For detailed review, visit the APT Spot Analysis and APT Futures Analysis pages. Make your own analysis and decide, the market is volatile.