AXS Technical Analysis February 24, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

AXS is trading in a narrow range at the $1.24 level ($1.19-$1.25) and is positioned close to critical support and resistance levels within the overall downtrend. Both scenarios are possible; if the upside breakout occurs on volume, the rise could accelerate, while a downside breakout could deepen due to BTC pressure on altcoins.

Current Market Situation

AXS has stabilized at the $1.24 level after rising 1.31% in the last 24 hours, but the overall trend continues downward. Technical indicators are giving mixed signals: RSI at 40.30 is in the neutral-low zone (not oversold but momentum is weak), MACD maintains bearish pressure with a negative histogram. Price is trading below EMA20 ($1.41) and the Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, with $1.73 resistance forming a strong barrier. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, 12 strong levels were identified in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: supports at $1.1343 (score 63/100) and $1.2305 (61/100), resistances at $1.2365 (79/100) and $1.6139 (60/100). Volume is at a medium level of $65.60M, but an increase is necessary for a trend change. This structure offers traders the opportunity to prepare for both directions; the current R/R ratio is attractive for the bullish target of $1.9490 (~1:1.2), aggressive for the bearish target of $0.1503 (~1:8).

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, the $1.2365 resistance (score 79/100) must first be broken with a high-volume candle close; this level is a critical trigger for a short-term trend change. Then, price should gain momentum toward the EMA20 ($1.41) level, RSI should rise above 50 to confirm momentum, and the MACD histogram should cross above the zero line. The Supertrend flipping to a bullish signal (if $1.73 resistance is surpassed) would be strong confirmation. This breakout could be supported by potential development news in the Axie Infinity ecosystem or a general altcoin rally. Traders should monitor the formation of an ascending channel and increasing volume on the 4-hour chart; invalidation would be the loss of the $1.2305 support, at which point the scenario becomes invalid.

Target Levels

First target $1.41 (EMA20), second $1.6139 resistance (score 60/100), then $1.73 Supertrend level. Long-term bullish target $1.9490 (score 25/100), aligned with Fibonacci extension levels. This move offers 57% return potential; risk can be managed by placing stop-loss below the $1.19 range. Follow current charts on the AXS Spot Analysis page.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a close below the $1.1343 support (score 63/100); although the current $1.24 price is balanced above this level, BTC weakness and low volume could facilitate the breakout. Deeper negative divergence in MACD, RSI dropping below 30, and distancing from EMA20 increase the risk. Strengthening of the Supertrend bearish signal (if $1.73 resistance is rejected) indicates trend continuation. General market fear (DXY rise or regulatory news) could accelerate this scenario. Traders should monitor the descending channel pattern and volume increase on the daily chart; invalidation is a break of $1.2365 resistance, which activates the bullish scenario.

Protection Levels

First protection below $1.1343 is the $1.19 range, then the $1.00 psychological level and long-term bearish target $0.1503 (score 0/100). This level signals the collapse of MTF supports and carries an 88% downside risk. Check the AXS Futures Analysis page for futures trading; $1.2305 stop level is recommended for leveraged positions (for educational purposes).

Which Scenario to Watch?

In the short term, $1.2365 resistance and $1.1343 support are the main triggers; breakouts without volume increase could be fakeouts, so wait for 4H/1D closes. RSI crossing 50 provides bullish confirmation, below 30 bearish. MACD zero line and EMA20 crossings provide additional signals. With high market volatility, position sizing and stop-loss are mandatory for both scenarios; traders should decide based on their own risk tolerance.

Bitcoin Correlation

AXS shows high correlation with BTC (general altcoin dynamics); BTC is in a downtrend at $64,161 and giving a Supertrend bearish signal. If BTC loses $62,840 support, the bearish scenario for AXS accelerates, with a $60,253 breakout pushing altcoins below $1.13. Conversely, if BTC breaks $64,323 resistance ($67,753 target), the bullish scenario for AXS is triggered. Rising BTC dominance signals an altcoin-less rally; $49,685 BTC support acts as $1.00 protection for AXS. Prioritize monitoring BTC movements.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

AXS is at a turning point at $1.24; a bullish breakout could lead to $1.9490, a bearish collapse to $0.1503. Watchlist: $1.2365/$1.1343 breakouts, RSI/MACD changes, BTC $62,840/$64,323 levels, and volume surges. Traders should verify MTF alignment and conduct their own analysis; follow market news (Axie updates). This approach teaches preparedness for every scenario.