DOGE Technical Analysis February 1, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

DOGE is trading in a critical squeeze zone at $0.11; despite being under downtrend pressure with a 7.90% drop in the last 24 hours, oversold signals (RSI 28.50) make both scenarios possible.

Current Market Situation

DOGE is stuck in the $0.09-$0.11 range at $0.11 price with 24-hour volume at $1.95 billion. The trend continues as downtrend; price is trading below EMA20 ($0.12) and Supertrend indicator gives bearish signal, pointing to $0.13 resistance line. RSI at 28.50 is in oversold territory, MACD histogram is negative and confirms bearish momentum. In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 11 strong levels were identified across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, 3S/4R distribution on 1W. Critical supports at $0.0946 (strength score 73/100) and $0.1037 (64/100); resistances at $0.1078 (71/100) and $0.1159 (60/100). This structure requires traders to be prepared for both directions; decreasing volume could increase volatility.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the bullish scenario, a volume-backed break above $0.1078 resistance (71/100 strength) is required first; momentum increase is expected once this level is surpassed. If RSI rebounds from 28.50 toward 50 and MACD histogram crosses above the zero line, EMA20 ($0.12) will be tested quickly. With Supertrend flipping from bearish to bullish, $0.1159 resistance becomes the target. In MTF, holding of 3 support levels on 1W timeframe supports overall trend reversal. Volume increase of +20% and positive candlestick patterns (hammer or engulfing) provide confirmation. If positive divergence forms from Bitcoin, an altcoin rally could be triggered. Scenario invalidation: Close below $0.1037 support.

Target Levels

First target $0.1159 (60/100), then $0.13 Supertrend resistance, and final $0.1494 (30 score extension target). This move offers +35% return potential from current $0.11; aligned with Fibonacci extension levels (1.618). Traders should seek volume and RSI confirmation at each stage; close above $0.1494 brings new ATH test into play.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a low-volume break below $0.1037 support (64/100); panic selling accelerates if this level is breached. RSI drops below 30 signaling new lows, MACD expands histogram with bearish divergence. Distance below EMA20 and Supertrend pointing to $0.09 reinforces momentum. In MTF, pressure from 4 resistances on 1W and 3D support breaks (2S) increase risk. Sudden volume spike after low-volume tests confirms downward break. Synchronization with Bitcoin downtrend intensifies general pressure on altcoins. Invalidation: Holding close above $0.1078 resistance.

Protection Levels

First protection $0.0946 (73/100), then $0.09 psychological support, and final $0.0634 bearish target (22 score). -42% downside potential from this level; overlaps with Fibonacci retracement (0.618). Traders should position stop-losses below $0.1037 for risk management; below $0.0634 confirms long-term downtrend.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For upside, volume-backed break of $0.1078/0.1159 + RSI>40 + MACD crossover; for downside, break of $0.1037/0.0946 + RSI<25 + negative volume. Confirmation signals include 4-hour candle closes, OBV divergence, and Stochastic extremes. MTF alignment is essential in both scenarios; e.g., 1D break must be supported on 3D. Monitor live data from DOGE Spot Analysis and DOGE Futures Analysis pages. Decision moment: Weekly closes will be direction-determining.

Bitcoin Correlation

DOGE shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $78,702 (-6.30%) with Supertrend bearish. If BTC supports at $78,809/$75,720 fail, pressure on DOGE increases toward $0.0946. Conversely, if BTC breaks $80,357/$83,160 resistances, DOGE bullish scenario strengthens ($0.1159+). Rising BTC dominance triggers altcoin sales; $64,655 BTC support is critical. Traders should prioritize monitoring BTC movements and look for divergence in DOGE.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

$0.10-$0.11 zone is decision point for DOGE; both scenarios valid, traders should size positions calculating risk/reward ratio (bull R/R ~1:3, bear ~1:4). Monitoring list: 1. $0.1078/$0.1037 breaks, 2. RSI/MACD signals, 3. Volume changes +30%, 4. BTC $78k-$80k movements, 5. Weekly candle closes. This analysis encourages your own research; market is volatile, discipline is key. Follow DOGE Spot and Futures pages for updates.