DOT Market Commentary: January 22, 2026 - Critical Support Test in the Downtrend

Polkadot (DOT), squeezed at the 1.93 dollar level and entering a critical support test, the downtrend on the daily chart is drawing investors' attention. With RSI at 42.77 hovering in the neutral zone, Bitcoin's downward pressure is challenging the altcoin market – a break of this level carries the risk of a sharp move to 1.65 dollars.

Market Outlook and Current Situation

Polkadot (DOT) is trading at the 1.93 dollar level with a 1.99% decline over the last 24 hours, maintaining a clear downtrend dominance on the daily timeframe. The 24-hour trading range remained limited between 1.91-2.00 dollars, with volume at a moderate 89.56 million dollars. This situation reflects the consolidation observed across the broader market; alongside Bitcoin's slight 0.41% drop, altcoins are under pressure. DOT remaining below its EMA20 (2.05 dollars) strengthens short-term bearish signals, while the Supertrend indicator pointing to 2.34 dollar resistance creates an additional barrier for upward moves.

Across the market, a cautious sentiment prevails against altcoins amid rising Bitcoin dominance in the crypto ecosystem. Although DOT remains on the radar of long-term investors due to its parachain ecosystem and Web3-focused development potential, the current downtrend momentum is unsettling short-term traders. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 13 strong levels: 2 supports/3 resistances on the daily, 2 resistances on the 3-day, and 3 supports/4 resistances confluence on the weekly. This structure explains DOT's squeeze in the 1.80-2.00 dollar range, and the direction of a breakout will be decisive. For more detailed spot trading, you can visit the DOT Spot Analysis page.

Although there have been no specific breakout news for DOT recently, the general market sentiment is shaped by the Fed's interest rate policies and global risk appetite. Stagnant volume indicates that big players are waiting on the sidelines; this could signal an accumulation or distribution phase before volatility increases.

Technical Analysis: Key Levels to Watch

Support Zones

The most critical point in the support zones is the 1.8333 dollar level (score: 63/100), which forms a strong base from recent lows on the daily chart. This area is supported by confluence on the weekly timeframe, and holding here could trigger rebound buying. One level below is 1.6530 dollars (score: 62/100); this is a long-term support aligning with Fibonacci retracement levels, and a break could accelerate bearish momentum. MTF analysis shows these supports reinforced by 5 strong levels on 1D and 1W timeframes, meaning traders should prioritize these zones in stop-loss strategies.

If volume increases during support tests, it could signal a bottom formation; however, the current low volume serves as a warning against fakeouts.

Resistance Barriers

The first hurdle in resistances is immediately above at 2.0027 dollars (score: 80/100), coinciding with the recent 24-hour high and forming a strong psychological barrier. A break here would bring 2.0967 dollars (score: 80/100) into play; this point aligns with EMA20 and Supertrend resistance. Further up, 2.8148 dollars (score: 65/100) stands as a long-term target, though it appears difficult to reach in the current trend. In MTF, 9 resistance levels (weighted on 3D and 1W) form a ceiling limiting upward moves.

These resistances offer ideal targets for short-term short positions, while breakout strategies require volume confirmation.

Momentum Indicators and Trend Strength

RSI (14) is positioned in the neutral-bearish zone at 42.77; a potential divergence signal can be sought before dipping below 30, as the oversold region is approaching. The MACD indicator confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, and staying below the signal line indicates continuation of the downtrend. In the EMA hierarchy, DOT being below EMA20 (2.05$) signals short-term weakness, while EMA50 and EMA200 higher up reinforce the overall bearish structure.

Supertrend giving a bearish signal, ADX (average directional index) holding trend strength at moderate levels (around 25) – requiring caution against sudden reversals. Momentum indicators across multiple timeframes are predominantly bearish; however, the RSI slowdown carries short-term recovery potential. For futures trading, we recommend reviewing the DOT Futures Analysis, as these indicators play a critical role in leveraged positions.

Risk Assessment and Trading Outlook

In terms of risk/reward ratio, the bearish scenario is more advantageous in the current position: a break of 1.8333 support toward 1.6530 (bear target: 1.1416, score 22) offers an R/R of around 1:2.5. On the bullish side, a 2.0027 breakout could lead to 2.8148 (score 31), but with low probability (in the current trend). Overall outlook remains bearish until support holds; it could turn neutral-bullish with volume increase and BTC stabilization.

Limit position sizes when volatility is low, place stop-losses above supports. Market risk is high: macro factors (Fed, geopolitics) can cause sudden swings. For a balanced portfolio, hedge DOT with BTC.

Bitcoin Correlation

Altcoins like DOT show high correlation with Bitcoin's price action; BTC's downtrend at the 89,590 dollar level is adding extra pressure on DOT. BTC supports at 88,311$, 86,715$, and 84,681$ – breaks of these levels could trigger altcoin declines, dragging DOT to 1.65$. Conversely, a BTC breakout above 91,178$, 92,961$, and 96,783$ resistances would bring relief to DOT and facilitate a 2.00$ test.

BTC Supertrend bearish signal is a red flag for altcoins; with BTC dominance rising, DOT's relative strength is weak. If BTC holds at 88k support, DOT could see a short-term bounce – traders should prioritize monitoring BTC levels.