ETHFI Weekly Analysis: January 23, 2026 Market Phases and Strategy

ETHFI is testing the critical $0.5884 support within the main downtrend while giving stability signals in a narrow range with a weekly %3.17 rise; BTC's sideways movement creates a cautious environment for altcoins, but oversold RSI may signal the start of an accumulation phase.

Weekly Market Summary for ETHFI

This week, ETHFI showed a limited recovery with a %3.17 weekly gain in the narrow $0.59 - $0.63 trading range. The current price is at $0.62, with volume profile reflecting low liquidity at $25.55M. While the market structure maintains its overall downtrend character, RSI at 35.73 is approaching the oversold region, giving short-term bottom signals. MACD confirms bearish momentum with a negative histogram, and the price continues to stay below EMA20 ($0.69). In the bigger picture, ETHFI is trading near the lower band of the long-term descending channel; if this level doesn't hold, deeper corrections may come into play. For position traders, this week's stability questions the market phase transition (from distribution to accumulation). For detailed spot data, check the ETHFI detailed spot analysis page.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure can be defined as a clear downtrend; the price is moving within the main descending channel with a drop of nearly %80 from 2025 highs on the weekly chart. On higher timeframes (3D/1W), the lower highs and lower lows formation remains intact, the trend filter gives a bearish signal, and $0.76 resistance stands as a strong gatekeeper. Staying below EMA50 and EMA200 indicates a healthy downtrend. However, this week's %3 rise shows signs of momentum exhaustion; from a market cycle perspective, stabilization is observed after the aggressive distribution phase of recent months. For portfolio managers, a close above $0.76 is required for a trend reversal signal; otherwise, the downtrend continues.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

From a market phases perspective, characteristics of a transition from distribution to accumulation are becoming prominent in recent weeks. The narrow trading range ($0.59-$0.63) with low volume exhibits typical accumulation characteristics; RSI 35.73 carries oversold divergence potential. In the volume profile, high nodes around $0.59 indicate institutional accumulation zones. Distribution patterns (upper shadows at $0.63) have weakened, but full accumulation confirmation won't come without breaking $0.6260 resistance. According to Wyckoff methodology, this could be a secondary test phase; if it holds, spring setups may form. For futures trading, follow ETHFI futures market data.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, ETHFI carries a bearish bias with 1 support/3 resistance confluence. While testing the $0.5884 major support (82/100 score), staying below EMA20 preserves the short-term bearish structure. The MACD histogram continues to dip negative, but RSI divergence offers recovery hope. Among 11 strong levels, $0.6260 (65/100) is the first hurdle on the daily; a breakout confluence could trigger upside momentum. This week's narrow range shows volatility compression; the breakout direction will define the week.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, the balanced 3S/3R confluence confirms the downtrend remains intact. The price shows stability near weekly lows, with $0.5884 carrying multi-TF support confluence (1W/3D). EMA200 weekly (around $0.75) is a distant resistance; for upside, $0.6667 and $0.9675 need to be surpassed. The market phase on the weekly is still a retest after distribution; volume decline favors accumulation. For more analysis, visit the ETHFI and other analyses section.

Critical Decision Points

Critical levels that will determine market direction are as follows: Major support $0.5884 (82/100 score, multi-TF confluence), a break opens downside risk to $0.3338. Short-term resistance $0.6260 (65/100), followed by $0.6667 and upside target $0.9675 (31 score). Staying above $0.5884 is essential for the trend to remain intact; above $0.6260 provides bullish confluence. These levels are indispensable references for position sizing and stop-loss.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

The bullish scenario activates with a $0.6260 breakout: First target $0.6667, extension $0.9675. Long positions above $0.5884, manageable with R/R 1:3+ and stop below $0.6260. Wait for volume increase to confirm accumulation phase; if BTC is stable, altcoin rotation supports ETHFI. Portfolio allocation %5-10, with trailing stop.

In Case of Fall

The bearish scenario triggers with a $0.5884 breakout: Target $0.3338 downside risk. Short positions below $0.6260, stop above $0.6667. Downtrend continuation probability is high; if combined with macro risks, aggressive decline is possible. Risk management upfront, position max %3.

Bitcoin Correlation

ETHFI shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); while BTC is sideways at $90,574, altcoin caution applies. BTC supertrend is bearish; if key supports $89,096 / $87,611 break, ETHFI will pressure $0.5884. Conversely, if BTC breaks $92,284 resistance, ETHFI upside will trigger ($0.6260+). BTC dominance rise could accelerate altcoin distribution; monitor weekly BTC close.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week's focus: $0.5884 hold vs breakout, $0.6260 test, and BTC $89k-$92k range. If accumulation signals strengthen, long bias; otherwise bearish continuation. Follow volume and RSI divergences; with no macro news flow, technical confluence will guide. Position traders, wait patiently for level-based entries.