HBAR Technical Analysis February 22, 2026: Will It Rise or Fall?

HBAR is trapped in a tight range at the $0.10 level; MACD is giving a bull signal with a positive histogram while RSI is neutral at 47 and Supertrend remains bearish. This ambiguous setup makes both an upside scenario via resistance breakout and a downside scenario via support breakdown equally probable.

Current Market Situation

HBAR is trading at $0.10 with a 3.88% drop over the last 24 hours, and the overall trend continues downward. The price is positioned below EMA20 ($0.10), issuing a short-term bearish signal, but the positive histogram formation in MACD indicates hidden bull momentum. RSI at 47.21 is balanced in the neutral zone, while the Supertrend indicator highlights the $0.12 resistance, maintaining the bearish bias. Volume is at a moderate $48.18M level with low volatility; 12 strong levels have been identified across multiple timeframes (1D/3D/1W): balanced 3 supports/3 resistances on 1D, 1 resistance on 3D, and 2 supports/4 resistances dominance on 1W. Critical supports: $0.0961 (score 78/100), $0.0907 (69/100), and $0.0486 (62/100); resistances: $0.1052 (73/100), $0.1017 (68/100), and $0.1256 (66/100). This structure requires traders to position according to the breakout direction – as analysts, we evaluate scenarios by tracking level scores and MTF alignment.

Scenario 1: Upside Scenario

How Does This Scenario Unfold?

For the upside scenario, a high-volume close above the $0.1017 and $0.1052 resistances (scores 68-73) is essential first. Expansion of the MACD histogram and RSI gaining momentum above 50 could trigger a break above EMA20. Holding in the $0.12 zone and positive divergence from BTC should be observed to reverse Supertrend's bearish signal. With 3 resistance levels balanced on the 1D timeframe, the first of the 4 resistances on 1W ($0.1256) could be tested quickly post-breakout. A 50%+ volume increase and bullish engulfing candle patterns would strengthen the scenario. If this occurs, short-term trend reversal is confirmed, and momentum traders can evaluate long positions – but always monitor the $0.0961 support as the invalidation level.

Target Levels

First target $0.1256 (score 66/100), followed by the main bull target at $0.1402 (score 25/100). Fibonacci extension levels and MTF resistance clusters support these targets; reaching $0.1402 offers 40%+ upside potential. The R/R ratio from current levels calculates to around 1:2.5, making it attractive, but these targets remain unreachable without the $0.1052 breakout.

Scenario 2: Downside Scenario

Risk Factors

The downside scenario is triggered by a close below the $0.0961 support (score 78/100); this breakdown reinforces EMA20 and Supertrend bearish signals, directing momentum downward. RSI dropping below 40, MACD histogram turning negative, and a volume spike increasing sell volume elevate risks. BTC breaking its $67,535 support creates correlated pressure on HBAR. The 4-resistance dominance on the 1W timeframe already supports the bearish bias; bearish engulfing or shooting star candle patterns provide confirmation. In this scenario, the short-term downtrend deepens, and stop-losses should be placed above $0.1052.

Protection Levels

First protection at $0.0907 (score 69/100), followed by the main bear target at $0.0486 (score 22/100). Descent to these levels carries 50%+ downside risk, testing MTF supports (total 5 supports on 1D/1W). From an R/R perspective, it offers 1:3 opportunities for short positions, but holding above $0.0961 invalidates the scenario.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Key triggers: For upside, daily close above $0.1052 + volume increase + RSI>50; for downside, close below $0.0961 + negative MACD + BTC $67,535 breakdown. Confirmation signals include candle closes, volume profile, and MTF alignment – for example, confidence increases if a 1D breakout is confirmed by 3D/1W. Traders should closely monitor invalidations for both scenarios ($0.0961 for bull, $0.1052 for bear); with low volatility, fakeout risk is high. Support with additional data from HBAR Spot Analysis and HBAR Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

HBAR is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC is in a downtrend at $67,503 with a 1.54% drop and Supertrend bearish. If BTC holds its $67,535 support, stability can be maintained in HBAR, but a drop to $64,437 pressures altcoins. Conversely, BTC breaking above $68,052 strengthens HBAR's upside scenario – rising BTC dominance is risk for HBAR, falling dominance is opportunity. Key BTC levels: Supports $67,535/$64,437/$62,910; resistances $68,052/$70,642/$74,487. HBAR traders should prioritize monitoring BTC movements.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

The HBAR squeeze around $0.10 will outline a clear roadmap based on breakout direction; both scenarios are supported by MTF levels and indicators. Monitoring points: $0.1052/$0.0961 breakouts, volume changes, RSI/MACD divergences, and BTC correlation. Traders should use invalidations based on their risk tolerance and wait for candle closes against market makers' fakeouts. Weekly closes are critical for trend confirmation – follow developments on HBAR Spot and Futures pages. This analysis is designed to understand probabilities; it will be updated according to market dynamics.