LINK Weekly Strategy: Downtrend Continues - Critical Support Test (January 20, 2026)

LINK closed the week at $12.51 with a 2.34% decline, as the downtrend structure continues unbroken. The key $12.36 support is under test; a breakdown could gain momentum towards $9.27, while BTC's sideways but bearish supertrend pressure paints a cautious picture for altcoins.

LINK in the Weekly Market Summary

This week, LINK traded in a narrow $12.48 - $13.01 band and settled at $12.51 with a 2.34% weekly loss. Volume profile remained at $195.57M, signaling insufficient activity for trend continuation. RSI at 39.85 is neutral-downward, MACD shows a bearish signal with negative histogram. Remaining under EMA20 ($13.26) strengthens the short-term bearish filter. Market structure is defined as overall downtrend, with 11 strong levels detected across multi-timeframes: 2 supports/3 resistances on daily, 0S/2R on 3-day, 3S/4R confluence on weekly. In the macro context, Chainlink's oracle network developments remain quiet, while BTC dominance limits altcoin rotation. For position traders, the trend structure remains "downtrend intact"; monitor breakdown below $12.36. For more detailed data, visit the LINK Spot Analysis and LINK Futures Analysis pages.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

In the long-term perspective, LINK has been moving in a downtrend channel since the 2025 highs (over -60% decline). The weekly chart maintains a clear bearish structure with lower highs and lower lows; convergence towards the lower band of the channel from $16.91 to $9.27 over the last 6 months is observed. Moving average stack (EMA50 $14.12, EMA200 $15.88) forms a strong resistance cluster. Trend filter is bearish: As long as price stays under EMA20, momentum will remain negative. From a market cycle perspective, the transition to consolidation/distribution phase since the late 2024 rally appears complete; a bullish reversal without dropping below $11.92 will be difficult. For portfolio managers, the principle "trend remains intact as long as $12.58 resistance holds" applies.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Upon examining the volume profile, high-volume nodes (POC) around $13.00 act as resistance; below $12.50 indicates a potential accumulation base with low-volume Value Area Low (VAL). However, bearish MACD histogram expansion and lack of RSI divergence point to emerging distribution patterns: Large players may have sold at $13+ levels, waiting for a $12.36 test for retail stop hunting. Per Wyckoff methodology, this is the Secondary Test (ST) phase; transition to Re-accumulation without springs is weak. Weekly volume delta is negative, indicating net selling pressure dominance. Accumulation phase features (high volume spikes + higher lows) are absent; distribution continuation is likely, expect descent to Markdown phase on $11.92 breakdown. Check the LINK and other analyses section for all analyses.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily timeframe, LINK is trapped below $12.58 resistance; confluence of 2 supports (12.36, 11.92) and 3 resistances (12.58, 13.20, 14.47) reinforces bearish bias. RSI at 39.85 is near oversold but no divergence, MACD line below signal. After daily EMA20 breakdown, short-term downtrend channel points to $12.36. Confluence: Fibonacci 0.618 retracement $12.36 coincides with POC support (score 72/100). For bullish, weekly close above $13.20 is required; otherwise, daily structure remains bearish.

Weekly Chart View

On weekly, heavy resistance dominance with 3 supports (12.36, 11.92, 9.27) and 4 resistances (13.20, 14.47, 16.91): Price at channel lower band (12.36), supertrend has flipped bearish. Momentum weak after EMA50/200 death cross; weekly RSI stable in 45 band but histogram negative. Multi-TF confluence strong: 1W supports align with 3D resistances, meaning upside limited. As long as trend structure is "intact," weekly candle close below $12.58 confirms bearish.

Critical Decision Points

Key inflection points:

• Supports: $12.3633 (72/100, channel lower + Fib 0.618), $11.9221 (69/100, prior low), $9.2762 (22/100, major downside objective).
• Resistances: $12.5881 (69/100, weekly open), $13.2058 (62/100, EMA20), $16.9124 (62/100, upside target).

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Case of Rise

Bullish scenario: Reclaim above $12.58 + weekly close at $13.20 (EMA20). Targets: $14.47 (1st), $16.91 (major). Stop: Below $12.36 (trend invalidation). Position: Long scalps with 5-10% allocation, confluence with BTC $92k+. Risk: Low probability (30%), high fakeout risk post-distribution.

In Case of Decline

Bearish scenario: Breakdown below $12.36 (with volume spike). Targets: $11.92 (1st), $9.27 (2nd, R/R 1:2+). Stop: Above $12.58. Position: Short 15-20% allocation, trailing stop within channel. High probability (65+%), accelerated with BTC support breakdowns.

Bitcoin Correlation

LINK is dependent on BTC with 0.85+ correlation average for altcoins: BTC $90,792 (-2.42%) sideways but supertrend bearish, dominance rising. If BTC key supports $90,920 / $88,212 break, LINK $12.36 test accelerates (alts amplify 2x%). BTC rally above $92,445 resistances could lift LINK to $13.20. Watch: BTC below $84k = altcoin cascade risk; dominance 55%+ = LINK distribution finale.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus: $12.36 support test (volume + candle close), BTC hold at $90.9k. Bull confluence: LINK $13.20 + BTC $92k; Bear trigger: 12.36 break + BTC below $88k. Position traders, "wait for confirmation"; no FOMO. In macro cycle downphase, patience is key. Follow the analyses page for weekly updates.