MORPHO Market Structure Analysis: January 19, 2026 Trend Status

Uptrend structure largely intact; however, short-term risks are increasing with the 3.67% drop in the last 24 hours and the Supertrend bearish signal. Holding above EMA20 at the $1.28 level preserves the bullish short-term outlook.

Market Structure Overview

MORPHO's market structure generally exhibits a higher highs (HH) and higher lows (HL) pattern reflecting the uptrend. The current price is at $1.28, traded in the $1.22-$1.37 range over the last 24 hours, experiencing a -3.67% drop. This indicates the trend is in a healthy correction (pullback) phase. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identified a total of 10 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W timeframes: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 support/3 resistances on 3D, 2 supports/3 resistances on 1W. RSI at 50.89 is in neutral territory, MACD's positive histogram supports bullish momentum. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and highlights the $1.47 resistance. The overall structure shows the uptrend remains intact with HLs preserved; however, there is a risk of LH (lower high) formation. Market structure analysis focuses on how price behaves around swing points: HH/HL defines uptrend, LH/LL defines downtrend. BOS (Break of Structure) confirms trend continuation, or CHoCH (Change of Character) confirms reversal.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

The uptrend is supported by the classic HH/HL structure. A new HL formation was observed from the last swing low at $1.0744 (to $1.2527) and from $1.2527 to the current $1.28. Price holding above EMA20 ($1.28) preserves the short-term bullish structure. MACD's positive histogram confirms momentum in favor of buyers. On MTF, strong HLs on the 1W timeframe (e.g., around $1.0744) indicate the uptrend is solidifying on higher timeframes. The $1.7981 target (score:31) aligns with the structure for bullish continuation; this level is measurable as an extension of previous HHs. Educational note: In an uptrend, each new HL must be above the previous low, confirming buyer control.

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend risk has increased with the 24h pullback, but LH/LL has not yet been confirmed. Consolidation below the $1.3695 swing high could form a potential LH. Supertrend is bearish and $1.47 resistance is strong; momentum may weaken unless broken. Bearish breakdown target is $0.7568 (score:22), triggered by BOS below the $1.2527 swing low. RSI at 50.89 is neutral, but dropping below 40 increases divergence risk. Watch: A close below the $1.22 daily low would be the first LL signal and initiate CHoCH.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend changes. Bullish BOS: Price breaking the $1.3695 (score:65/100) swing high and then the $1.47 Supertrend resistance; this forms a new HH and confirms uptrend continuation. Momentum accelerates if $1.3242 (score:69/100) intermediate resistance is broken. Bearish BOS: Close below the $1.2527 (score:62/100) swing low; this breaks the HL structure and initiates LH/LL downtrend. Critical level is $1.0744 (score:63/100); a break here causes a major CHoCH and opens the path to $0.7568. On MTF, 3D/1W resistances (total 6R) are challenging for bullish BOS; 1D supports (2S) are defensive. BOS definition: Breaking the previous swing in the opposite direction indicates trend shift – e.g., low break in uptrend strengthens sellers.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $1.3242 (score:69/100, strong resistance) and $1.3695 (score:65/100). These define the uptrend's peaks; rejection is expected as price approaches. $1.47 Supertrend acts as an extended resistance layer. Breakout opens the path to $1.7981 with a new HH. Importance: Swing highs are where sellers accumulate; they should be tested with volume.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $1.2527 (score:62/100, nearby support) and $1.0744 (score:63/100, major support). Current $1.28 bounced above $1.2527; this preserves HL. $1.22 daily low is micro support. Breakout risk is high; holding keeps uptrend intact. Importance: Swing lows are key for buyer entries; HL preservation continues the trend.

Bitcoin Correlation

MORPHO is a highly correlated altcoin with BTC; BTC at $93,018 in uptrend but Supertrend bearish and dominance caution signal. BTC key supports: $92,932, $90,949, $88,230. Resistances: $93,865, $95,532, $97,924. If BTC breaks down below $92,932, MORPHO $1.2527 test accelerates – cascade effect in altcoins. Conversely, BTC breaking $93,865 supports MORPHO bullish BOS. 24h BTC -2.18% drop amplified MORPHO's -3.67%; rising BTC dominance crushes alts. Watch: If BTC holds $90,949, MORPHO has uptrend recovery chance. Correlation strategy: Synchronize BTC structure with MORPHO BOS.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook: Uptrend intact (HH/HL dominant), short-term pullback looks healthy. Bullish bias as long as above $1.2527; continuation with $1.3695 BOS. Bearish scenario activates on $1.2527 break. MTF resistance weight (6R vs 5S) requires caution. Targets: Bullish $1.7981, bearish $0.7568. Check detailed data in MORPHO Spot Analysis and MORPHO Futures Analysis. Structure is dynamic; daily closes are critical. Educational takeaway: Always monitor recent swings – catch early signals with BOS/CHoCH.