SOL Technical Analysis February 28, 2026: Will it Rise or Fall?

SOL is experiencing horizontal consolidation at the 82.17 dollar level, and both scenarios are possible due to the downtrend and bullish signals in MACD. Critical support and resistance levels stand out as key points that will determine the market direction.

Current Market Situation

SOL is trading at 82.17 dollars with a slight 0.60% increase over the last 24 hours. The daily range was between 77.12 - 82.91 dollars, while trading volume is at relatively healthy levels of 4.42 billion dollars. Although the overall trend is downward, RSI at 40.16 is approaching the oversold region, and the MACD histogram shows positive momentum. The price is not above the short-term EMA20 (86.37 dollars), indicating short-term bearish pressure. The Supertrend indicator is giving a bearish signal, and the 99.28 dollar resistance forms a strong barrier.

In multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis, a total of 9 strong levels were identified on the 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 1 support/2 resistance on 1D, 1 support/1 resistance on 3D, 2 support/3 resistance on 1W. Critical support at 78.2567 dollars (strength score: 67/100), resistances at 84.9839 dollars (68/100) and 108.1200 dollars (64/100). These levels will serve as triggers for the scenarios.

Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario

How Does This Scenario Occur?

For the bullish scenario, a clear break above the 84.9839 dollar resistance is required first. This breakout should be confirmed by increased volume and RSI rising above 50. The positive MACD histogram supports momentum; if the price surpasses EMA20 (86.37 dollars), it signals a short-term trend reversal. The Supertrend flipping from bearish (around 99.28 dollars) and a strong bullish close on the 1D candle strengthen the scenario. Breaking 1W resistances in MTF could trigger a broader rally. This scenario becomes realistic with improving overall market sentiment, such as an altcoin rally or ecosystem news.

Invalidation of the scenario: If the price breaks below the 78.2567 dollar support, bullish expectations are canceled.

Target Levels

First target 99.28 dollars (Supertrend resistance), followed by strong resistance at 108.1200 dollars. More aggressive target 117.7063 dollars (score: 31/100), aligned with Fibonacci extension levels. This move represents a 43% increase from the current price and could be attractive in terms of risk/reward ratio (R/R), but volume confirmation is essential.

Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario

Risk Factors

The bearish scenario is triggered by a break below the 78.2567 dollar support. This breakout should be confirmed by increasing volume and RSI falling below 30. Continuation of the Supertrend's bearish signal and the price remaining below EMA20 increase the pressure. MACD histogram turning negative or a bearish candle formation on 1D (e.g., shooting star) heightens risks. Testing 1W supports in MTF analysis signals a deeper correction. Macro factors like BTC decline or low-volume selling could accelerate this scenario.

Invalidation of the scenario: A break above the 84.9839 dollar resistance shifts to the bullish side.

Protection Levels

First protection level below 78.2567 dollars at 77.12 dollars (daily low). Deeper levels are MTF supports: 70-75 dollar band on 3D and 1W, ultimate target 45.4027 dollars (score: 22/100). This level indicates a 45% decline; traders should position stop-losses below 78 dollars, but capital management is essential.

Which Scenario to Watch?

Main triggers: Close above 84.9839 dollars confirms bullish, close below 78.2567 dollars confirms bearish scenario. Volume profile is critical: Look for +20% volume increase on breakouts. RSI divergences (RSI rising while price falls = bullish), MACD crosses, and candle formations (doji or engulfing) provide confirmation signals. Monitor these levels on daily/4-hour charts; stay sidelined if volatility is high. Follow additional data from SOL Spot Analysis and SOL Futures Analysis pages.

Bitcoin Correlation

SOL shows high correlation with BTC (usually 0.85+). BTC is currently in a downtrend at 66,261 dollars with Supertrend bearish. A BTC break below 64,320 dollar support creates pressure on SOL below 78 dollars; 62,490 and 60,000 dollar levels strengthen the bearish scenario. Conversely, if BTC breaks above 65,786 dollar resistance (targets 68,086 and 70,006), it opens room for SOL upside. If BTC dominance rises, altcoins remain under pressure; SOL traders should prioritize monitoring BTC support/resistance levels.

Conclusion and Monitoring Notes

The 78-85 dollar band on SOL is the decision point; both scenarios are supported by technical data. Watchlist: 1) 84.98/78.25 breakouts, 2) Volume and RSI/MACD confirmation, 3) BTC 64K/65K levels, 4) MTF support/resistance tests. Market is volatile; make decisions based on your own analysis. Regularly check news flow and SOL spot/futures data. This approach prepares you for different outcomes.