ZEC Technical Analysis February 23, 2026: Weekly Strategy

ZEC is maintaining its weekly sideways trend while $244 resistance stands out as a critical threshold; short-term bearish signals are balanced by the positive histogram on MACD. For portfolio managers, monitor the accumulation phase potential under BTC's downtrend pressure, but a break below $184 support increases the risk of a deep correction.

ZEC in the Weekly Market Summary

ZEC closed the last week with a slight decline of %-1.26 at the $243.76 level and consolidated in the $230.10 - $252.93 range. Volume profile remained stable at $460.85M, with the market exhibiting a sideways structure. RSI at 39.28 is in the neutral-bearish zone, and although MACD shows a positive histogram, the bearish short-term trend filter dominates below EMA20 ($273.11). In the big picture, ZEC is giving accumulation phase signals in long-term cycles, but the current resistance cluster increases distribution risk. BTC's downtrend is a caution signal for altcoins, and ZEC shows high correlation despite its privacy coin features. This week, monitor critical levels for detailed ZEC spot analysis.

Trend Structure and Market Phases

Long-Term Trend Analysis

The long-term trend structure indicates a sideways consolidation phase on weekly and monthly charts; on higher timeframes, ZEC appears to have completed the distribution phase since the 2021 peaks. With the primary trend defined as sideways, trading below EMA50 and EMA200 preserves the bearish bias. From a market cycle perspective, ZEC had given early accumulation signals by the end of 2024, but early 2025 macro pressures (regulatory uncertainty and BTC dominance increase) failed to keep the trend intact. Market structure has not broken the higher highs and higher lows pattern, but the $330.41 resistance level is positioned as an inflection point for trend change. For long-term portfolio strategies, a break above this level could trigger a multi-month rally; otherwise, a deepening toward $184.57 is likely. Trend remains intact as long as $184 support holds, but a break confirms lower timeframe bearish continuation.

Accumulation/Distribution Analysis

Accumulation/distribution patterns are concentrated in the $230-$244 band according to volume profile and POC (Point of Control) analysis; this range shows smart money's accumulation phase characteristics as volume remains balanced at low levels. However, the 5 resistance / 3 support ratio on the 1W timeframe signals emerging distribution patterns – especially at the $244.34 level (70/100 score) with a strong seller cluster. According to Wyckoff methodology, ZEC is in the secondary test phase; if the spring test succeeded at $230, a transition to markup phase is possible. Distribution risk increases with BTC correlation; upside objective $462.2850 has a low score (26/100), but valid if supported by confluence. Downside risk $33.4930 is extreme but reachable in a macro bear cycle. Strategically, buys below $244 for accumulation phase, short positions for distribution confirmation should be considered. ZEC futures market data is ideal for confirming this phase transition.

Multi-Timeframe Confluence

Daily Chart View

On the daily chart, ZEC is testing $244 resistance with 1S/1R confluence; RSI divergence forms a bullish divergence with the positive MACD histogram. Price is bearish below EMA20, but $230 support confluence (1D support) hold creates short-term bounce potential. Market structure on daily is making lower highs, strengthening bearish continuation bias. Key inflection point is $244.34 breakout; a daily close above it triggers higher timeframes.

Weekly Chart View

From a weekly perspective, the 3S/5R imbalance is notable; the $244-$252 resistance cluster signals distribution. Sideways channel upper band around $253, lower band $230; volume spike required for breakout. With long-term trend filter bearish, MACD positive histogram gives accumulation signal. Confluence across timeframes emphasizes $184.57 major support – 1W/3D/1D alignment with 62/100 score. For weekly strategy, monitor channel breakout.

Critical Decision Points

Main support: $184.5700 (multi-TF confluence, 62/100 score) – Break below confirms bearish phase and activates $33 downside risk. Main resistance: $244.3400 (70/100 score) – Break above opens path to $273 EMA20 and $330.41, targeting $462 upside objective. Other critical levels: $230.10 (weekly low), $252.93 (range high), $273.11 (EMA20). These points will define direction; above $244 bullish scenario, below bearish. Full list available for ZEC and other analyses.

Weekly Strategy Recommendation

In Bullish Case

$244.34 breakout and daily/weekly close above, entry for long positions; first target $273 EMA20, secondary $330.41, stretch $462. Stop-loss below $230. R/R ratio 1:3+ potential, confluence increases if BTC breaks $65.9k resistance. For position traders, take partial profit at $273.

In Bearish Case

Close below $244 and $230 break, short opportunity; target $184.57, deep $33 risk. Stop above $253. High probability with BTC downtrend confluence; R/R 1:4+. In decline, monitor long reversal at $184 for accumulation.

Bitcoin Correlation

ZEC shows high correlation with BTC (%0.85+); in BTC's $65,622 downtrend (-3.14% 24h), altcoin caution prevails. If BTC key supports $65,632 / $64,054 / $60,000 do not hold, ZEC cannot test $244 resistance – dominance increase accelerates distribution. If BTC breaks $65,914 resistance, room opens for ZEC upside; supertrend bearish on BTC keeps ZEC short bias forefront. Watch: BTC below $60k triggers deep ZEC drop.

Conclusion: Key Points for Next Week

Next week focus on $244 decision and BTC $65k test; $244 breakout bullish flip, break bearish continuation. Monitor volume spike and RSI divergence. For portfolio, keep risk at %2-3 limit; macro BTC cycle dominates. Long-term, accumulation phase remains intact with $184 hold.