• Bitcoin’s current slump: Trading 30% below October highs, with a 21% drop over the last 30 days, pushing the market to its weakest since 2022.

• Macro influences: Liquidity shows slight gains from US banks’ November lending increase, but overall conditions remain tight.

• Market sentiment: Fear and Greed Index in extreme fear zone, with $3.5 billion outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks.

Explore Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction amid the 2025 slump: BTC may dip to $80K but hold firm. Discover key liquidity factors and market recovery signs for informed crypto investing today.

What is Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction for late 2025?

Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction suggests that BTC will trade below $90,000 in the coming weeks, with a possible further decline into the low $80,000s, though he believes the $80,000 level will provide support. This outlook comes as Bitcoin extends its month-long downturn, influenced by subdued liquidity despite minor positive shifts. Hayes emphasizes that broader credit conditions will drive the market more than interest rates alone.

How are liquidity conditions affecting Bitcoin’s price?

Liquidity conditions in the cryptocurrency market have shown only marginal improvements, according to Arthur Hayes, a prominent macro analyst. He points to two key developments: US banks ramped up lending activities in November 2025, providing a slight boost to overall financial flows, and the Federal Reserve is anticipated to pause its quantitative tightening program starting December 1, 2025. These factors could ease some pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, but Hayes cautions that they are insufficient for an immediate rebound.

Data from market trackers indicates that Bitcoin’s price has fallen approximately 21% over the past 30 days, extending a broader slump that has seen it trade 30% below its record highs from early October 2025. This weakness mirrors the market’s most challenging period since 2022, with the total crypto market capitalization briefly dipping below the $3 trillion threshold before recovering to that level. Trading volume surged 34% in the last 24 hours to $150 billion, reflecting heightened volatility as investors react to the ongoing uncertainty.

Hayes’ analysis aligns with observations from financial institutions like Deutsche Bank, whose analysts attributed Bitcoin’s drawdown to a confluence of risks, including a risk-off sentiment in broader markets driven by fluctuating tech stock valuations. Additionally, hawkish remarks from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell have delayed advancements in cryptocurrency-related legislation in Congress, further dampening enthusiasm. Hayes notes that credit expansion remains the critical driver; he posits that even with elevated federal funds rates, Bitcoin could reach all-time highs if the Fed implements aggressive quantitative easing measures.

In terms of specific price action, Hayes expects Bitcoin to consolidate below $90,000, with a potential test of the low $80,000s. He advises caution for now, suggesting investors “nibble” at positions but reserve major capital deployments for the new year. This measured approach stems from his view that while liquidity is improving incrementally, systemic pressures persist.

minor improvements in $ liq:
– fed qt stops dec 1, this wed will prob be last fall in b/s
– us banks increased lending in nov

we chop below $90k, maybe one more stab down into low $80k’s but i think $80k holds. might start nibbling, but leave the bazooka until the new year

— Arthur Hayes (@CryptoHayes) November 24, 2025

Turning attention to other assets, Hayes also commented on HYPE, a token facing its own challenges. He argues that overcoming prevailing uncertainty requires substantial revenue growth, as promises from the team not to sell tokens offer no enforceable guarantees, potentially leading to daily selling pressure. HYPE’s price has declined more than 25% in the last 30 days and is currently around $32.

The broader market environment underscores these predictions. The Fear and Greed Index lingers in the “Extreme Fear” territory, signaling widespread investor caution. This sentiment is echoed in ETF flows, where more than $3.5 billion has been withdrawn from US Bitcoin exchange-traded funds in recent weeks—a stark reversal from earlier strong inflows since their launch last year. The sharp sell-off earlier in November 2025 liquidated tens of billions in futures positions, reducing open interest to levels well below those seen in October.

Profit-taking by long-term holders has exacerbated the decline, contributing significantly to the market’s contraction. As markets await the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy decisions, uncertainty continues to weigh on risk assets. Analysts from Deutsche Bank highlighted last week that Bitcoin’s performance is intertwined with global risk appetite, particularly as technology sector valuations face scrutiny amid economic signals.

Frequently Asked Questions

What factors are driving the current Bitcoin price slump in 2025?

The Bitcoin price slump in 2025 stems from tight liquidity conditions, profit-taking by long-term holders, and outflows from US Bitcoin ETFs totaling over $3.5 billion recently. Broader market risks, including hawkish Federal Reserve signals and declining tech valuations, have amplified the downturn, resulting in a 21% drop over the past month and positioning BTC 30% below October highs.

Will Bitcoin recover soon according to expert views?

According to macro analyst Arthur Hayes, Bitcoin may not see immediate recovery, likely trading below $90,000 with a possible dip to the low $80,000s before stabilizing. Minor liquidity gains, such as increased bank lending and the Fed’s quantitative tightening pause on December 1, 2025, offer some hope, but sustained credit expansion is needed for a stronger rebound.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s near-term outlook: Expect consolidation below $90,000, with support at $80,000 amid ongoing market weakness.
• Liquidity improvements: US banks’ November lending increase and Fed’s QT halt on December 1, 2025, provide incremental relief but not enough for quick gains.
• Investor caution advised: Monitor credit conditions and Fed policies; consider gradual position building rather than aggressive moves until 2026.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s extended price slump in late 2025, as analyzed by Arthur Hayes’ Bitcoin price prediction, highlights the interplay of liquidity conditions and macroeconomic factors in shaping cryptocurrency markets. With BTC facing resistance below $90,000 and potential support at $80,000, investors should prioritize fact-based assessments of credit trends and Federal Reserve actions. As the year progresses toward potential policy shifts, staying informed on these developments will be key to navigating volatility and identifying recovery opportunities.