Bitcoin price is trading at $111,320 and is attempting to break a two‑week daily downtrend; a clean daily close above $115,000 would confirm bullish momentum, while failure to regain $115K risks continued corrective action toward $110,000 support amid heightened volatility and Fed-driven macro tailwinds.
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Key resistance: $115,000–$117,000 — daily close above confirms breakout
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Recent range: $113,000–$120,000 after July highs near $121,000; August consolidation showed seller pressure
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Macro: market pricing shows ~89.7% chance of Fed rate cuts in two weeks; cuts could support long‑term crypto appreciation
Bitcoin price at $111,320 faces a two‑week downtrend; learn why $115K resistance matters, how Fed cuts could shift markets, and the near‑term outlook. Read analysis and trade implications.
Bitcoin at $111,320 battles a two-week downtrend, with volatility and Fed rate cuts shaping its next move toward $115,000 resistance.
Bitcoin faces a critical moment as it trades at $111,320.05 on Coinbase, attempting to break a two-week daily downtrend. The market’s direction now hinges on a strong daily close above $115,000 to confirm renewed bullish momentum.
According to analyst Rekt Capital, “BTC is attempting to break its two-week old Daily Downtrend. Daily Close above the Downtrend and/or post-breakout retest would confirm the breakout.” This stresses that a decisive daily close is the clearest confirmation of a breakout attempt.
Price action shows Bitcoin moving from roughly $106,000 in June to a mid‑month dip near $101,000, then surging into July and peaking near $121,000. August brought consolidation between $113,000 and $120,000 and a recent 3.2% pullback that exposed seller pressure.
Source: Rekt Capital
What is driving Bitcoin’s price action now?
Bitcoin price action is driven by technical resistance at $115K–$117K, short-term seller pressure from August consolidation, and macro expectations around Federal Reserve rate cuts; these factors together determine whether BTC resumes its July rally or continues corrective moves toward $110,000.
How important is the $115,000 level?
The $115,000 zone acts as a key decision point. Multiple tests in August created a descending trendline that caps rallies near $115K–$117K. A daily close above that zone would likely validate a breakout; failure to clear it increases the probability of revisiting immediate support near $110,000.
What do volume and trendlines indicate?
Daily volume has fluctuated with rallies and pullbacks, confirming that buyers provided strength during the July push while recent red candles indicate renewed selling intensity. The downtrend line drawn from August highs remains overhead and needs to be reclaimed for bullish confirmation.
Why do Fed cuts matter for Bitcoin?
Macro forces matter: markets are pricing roughly an 89.7% chance of Fed rate cuts in two weeks, which historically supports risk assets over time. While one or two cuts may not instantly trigger a sustained altseason, easing monetary policy typically improves the macro backdrop for Bitcoin’s long‑term appreciation.
Which scenarios should traders watch?
- Bull case: Daily close > $115,000 then retest as support → continuation toward $121,000+.
- Bear case: Rejection at trendline → corrective move to $110,000 or lower, increased volatility.
- Macro trigger: Confirmed Fed cuts increase risk appetite, improving odds for sustained upside.
How to interpret this setup as a trader?
1. Monitor daily close relative to the descending trendline and $115K resistance.
2. Watch volume confirmation on any breakout or breakdown.
3. Use $110,000 as near-term support reference and set risk limits accordingly.
| Level | Significance |
|---|---|
| $115,000–$117,000 | Key daily resistance; breakout confirmation zone |
| $113,000–$120,000 | August consolidation range |
| $110,000 | Immediate support; risk management level |
Frequently Asked Questions
What level confirms a Bitcoin breakout?
A clean daily close above the descending trendline near $115,000 followed by a successful retest as support confirms a breakout. Volume confirmation on the breakout increases the signal’s reliability.
How likely are Fed rate cuts and why does it matter?
Market pricing shows roughly an 89.7% chance of rate cuts in two weeks. Cuts matter because easing rates generally increases liquidity and risk appetite, which supports crypto markets over medium to long timeframes.
Key Takeaways
- Resistance is decisive: $115K–$117K is the breakout zone — daily close above matters most.
- Volume confirms moves: Higher volume on breaks increases the validity of the directional move.
- Macro tailwinds: Fed rate cut expectations are supportive but not an instant catalyst for altseason.
Conclusion
Bitcoin price at $111,320 sits at a technical crossroads. A daily close above $115,000 would confirm a breakout from a two‑week downtrend, while failure to clear that zone increases downside risk toward $110,000. Traders should prioritize daily closes, volume confirmation, and Fed meeting updates when planning positions. Publication: 2025-09-03. Author: COINOTAG.
