Bitcoin Bears Divergence Suggests Possible Correction Toward $92,000 Amid Key Support Tests

• Bitcoin struggles to hold $115,000 support, risking a further drop to $104,000.

• Weekly RSI divergence indicates fading bullish momentum and potential deeper pullbacks.

• Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) suggests increased profit-taking, marking $123,000 as a probable local peak.

Bitcoin bearish divergence signals a correction toward $92,000; monitor $115K support closely. Stay updated with COINOTAG’s expert crypto analysis.

• Bitcoin’s price correction is imminent as bearish signals intensify, highlighting key support levels and momentum shifts.

• Market analysts emphasize the importance of $115,000 support to sustain the current uptrend.

• COINOTAG experts note that historical patterns and NUPL data point to a possible mid-cycle retracement.

Bitcoin bearish divergence signals a correction toward $92,000; monitor $115K support closely. Stay updated with COINOTAG’s expert crypto analysis.

Is Bitcoin Likely to Drop to $104,000 Soon?

Bitcoin’s price is currently testing the crucial $115,000 support level, which analysts identify as pivotal for maintaining the bullish trend. Failure to hold this level could trigger a cascade of liquidations, pushing the price down toward the $104,000 to $110,000 range. This scenario is supported by recent trading data showing increased long-side liquidations and volatility.

What Does the Weekly RSI Divergence Mean for Bitcoin?

The weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) for Bitcoin reveals a bearish divergence, where price highs outpace momentum highs. This classic technical indicator suggests that bullish strength is waning, often preceding significant price corrections. Historically, similar RSI patterns have preceded major pullbacks, including the 2021 market top.

How Does Bitcoin’s NUPL Indicator Signal a Potential Top?

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) currently resides in the 0.5–0.6 range, historically associated with local market tops. This metric measures unrealized profits among holders, and elevated levels often lead to increased selling pressure. Past occurrences in 2020, March 2024, and January 2025 preceded sharp corrections, suggesting a similar pattern may unfold soon.

What Are the Possible Price Targets During This Correction?

Should the bearish divergence play out fully, Bitcoin could retrace to its 50-week exponential moving average (EMA), currently near $92,000. This level has historically acted as strong support during mid-cycle corrections. However, some bullish analysts maintain that Bitcoin may still reach $138,000 to $150,000 later this year, indicating a contested outlook.

Frequently Asked Questions

What technical indicators suggest a Bitcoin price drop?

Bearish divergence in the weekly RSI and elevated NUPL levels indicate weakening bullish momentum and increased selling pressure, suggesting a potential price drop.

Why is the $115,000 level important for Bitcoin?

The $115,000 level acts as critical support; holding it is essential to prevent further declines and maintain the current bullish trend.

Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s $115,000 support is critical: A break below may lead to a drop toward $104,000 or lower.
• Bearish RSI divergence signals fading momentum: This often precedes deeper corrections.
• NUPL indicates profit-taking pressure: Historical data links current levels to local market tops.

Conclusion

Bitcoin is currently exhibiting classic signs of a mid-cycle price correction, with bearish divergence and profit-taking indicators suggesting a potential drop toward $92,000. While some bullish forecasts remain, traders should closely monitor key support levels at $115,000 and $104,000. COINOTAG will continue providing expert analysis as the market evolves.

Bitcoin (BTC) is down on Friday, dropping below $115,000 for the first time since July 25. The inability to crack the resistance at $120,000 for over three weeks now puts the BTC price uptrend in question, at least for the near term.

Will Bitcoin price drop to $104,000?

Bitcoin is flirting with downside volatility as it clings to the $115,000 support level, an area market analyst Michaël van de Poppe flagged as essential to continue the uptrend. 

His chart shows that BTC’s drop below $115,600 could trigger a cascade of long-side liquidations and push the price back toward the $110,000–$112,000 region.

BTC/USD four-hour price chart. Source: Michael van de Poppe

Data from CoinGlass and TradingView shows that Bitcoin dropped to an intraday low of $114,100 on Friday. This price action was accompanied by $172 million long BTC liquidations, per CoinGlass data.

The odds of a deeper correction to $104,000 will increase if the $116,000 level is not reclaimed shortly.

Bitcoin’s divergence hints at $92,000

Adding to the short-term bearish bias, Bitcoin’s weekly chart is flashing a classic bearish divergence between price and momentum.

The chart below shows that while BTC/USD formed higher highs over recent months, the relative strength index (RSI) has carved out lower highs, suggesting waning bullish momentum.

BTC/USD weekly price chart. Source: COINOTAG analysis

Such a signal often precedes deeper pullbacks, as it did ahead of the 2021 market top.

If history repeats, BTC could retrace toward its 50-week exponential moving average (50-week EMA; the yellow wave), currently near $92,000. This trendline also served as key support during previous bull markets, making it a logical target for any mid-cycle correction.

A similar divergence was observed on the monthly chart by Crypto Trader AlejandroBTC, who said it’s a sign that Bitcoin’s cycle is nearing its end.

“Bitcoin is flashing a triple bearish divergence on the monthly RSI. It’s the kind of setup that ends cycles.”

Bitcoin’s Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) also flashes warning signs. The metric is currently within the 0.5–0.6 zone, a level historically linked with local tops.

Bitcoin NUPL vs. price performance chart. Source: COINOTAG data

With more than 92% of supply in profit at current prices, there is a likelihood of an increase in sell-side pressure. Such setups in 2020, in March 2024 and January 2025, preceded sharp corrections, raising the possibility of similar pullbacks in August.

Nevertheless, CoinGlass’ 30 bull market peak indicators suggest that Bitcoin is showing no signs of overheating with $138,000 BTC price in play. Other bullish analysts anticipate that Bitcoin still has three months left before a price top of around $150,000.