Bitcoin Bullish Momentum Builds as Index Turns Positive and Buy Signals Flash

• Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index above zero indicates stronger buyer activity over sellers.

• Positive funding rates for Bitcoin perpetual contracts since late October suggest building optimism among traders.

• Binance’s BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio has triggered a third buy signal this cycle, historically preceding significant rallies with gains up to 50% or more.

Discover how the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index signals bullish momentum amid rising inflows and positive funding rates. Stay ahead in crypto trading—explore key indicators for informed decisions today.

What is the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index?

The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index is a comprehensive metric that evaluates the balance between bullish and bearish forces in the Bitcoin market by analyzing on-chain data, trading volumes, and sentiment indicators. Developed to provide traders with a clear view of market structure, it rises above zero when buying activity dominates, as seen recently for the first time since October 12. This shift often precedes sustained upward trends, reflecting improved investor confidence and capital inflows.

The index aggregates factors like transaction volumes, wallet activities, and exchange reserves to quantify momentum. When it crosses into positive territory, it suggests that holders are accumulating rather than distributing, a pattern observed in previous bull phases.

Source: X

How do Bitcoin funding rates influence market momentum?

Bitcoin funding rates represent the periodic payments exchanged between long and short positions in perpetual futures contracts, serving as a barometer for trader sentiment. Since October 22, these rates have remained positive, indicating that longs are paying shorts, which typically occurs during periods of optimism and can foreshadow short-term price rallies. According to data from Cryptoquant, negative funding phases have historically marked local market bottoms, while a pivot to positive values, as currently observed, underscores building bullish momentum.

This trend aligns with broader market dynamics, where sustained positive rates encourage more leveraged buying. For instance, in past cycles, similar patterns led to price surges of 10-20% within weeks. Experts note that when funding rates stabilize above 0.01%, it often correlates with increased spot market inflows, reducing available supply and supporting higher valuations. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) currently hovering near neutral levels further supports this, showing the market is neither overbought nor oversold, leaving room for growth.

Source: Cryptoquant

Complementing these signals, the BTC-to-stablecoin reserve ratio on Binance has issued its third buy alert this market cycle. This ratio measures Bitcoin holdings against stablecoin reserves on the exchange, with declining ratios often signaling impending demand surges. Historical data shows this pattern preceded rallies to $24,800 in January 2023, $73,000 in March 2024, and $123,500 in March 2025, each time driven by capital rotation from stable assets into Bitcoin.

Rising inflows and contracting supply on major exchanges are key drivers of this optimism. On-chain analytics from Glassnode indicate that exchange Bitcoin balances have dropped by 2% over the past month, while stablecoin deposits rose 5%, pointing to accumulation phases. “These metrics collectively paint a picture of a maturing bull market,” says a senior analyst at a leading blockchain research firm, emphasizing the reliability of such indicators in volatile environments.

What you need to watch

Bitcoin’s price is currently stabilizing around $113,000, following a period of consolidation after notable gains. Key support lies at $107,500; holding this level over the next 24 to 48 hours could pave the way for a push toward $116,000. This outlook is reinforced by the improving funding rates on Binance and the bullish stablecoin reserve signals.

Source: TradingView

Volume profile analysis reveals building support below current levels, with the RSI maintaining a neutral stance around 50-55, indicating balanced conditions ripe for upside. Traders should monitor global economic indicators, such as interest rate decisions from central banks, which could influence risk appetite in crypto markets. Additionally, whale accumulation patterns, tracked via on-chain tools, show large holders increasing positions by 1.5% in the last week, adding to the constructive setup.

Institutional interest remains a pivotal factor. Reports from Chainalysis highlight that Bitcoin ETF inflows reached $2.3 billion in October alone, surpassing previous months and correlating with the positive index readings. This influx not only bolsters liquidity but also stabilizes price action during consolidations. As the market enters this phase, attention turns to potential catalysts like upcoming regulatory updates or technological upgrades in the Bitcoin network, which could amplify momentum.

From a technical perspective, the 50-day moving average is trending upward and approaching the current price, suggesting a potential golden cross if it intersects the 200-day average soon. Such formations have historically led to 15-25% gains within a month. Meanwhile, fear and greed indices from alternative.me have shifted from neutral to greed territory, reflecting growing investor enthusiasm without excessive euphoria.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index above zero mean for investors?

A reading above zero on the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index signifies dominant bullish forces, driven by higher buying volumes and on-chain accumulation. Investors can interpret this as a cue for potential entry points, though they should combine it with other indicators like RSI and funding rates to mitigate risks in volatile markets.

Why are positive Bitcoin funding rates important for predicting rallies?

Positive funding rates mean long positions are incentivized, as traders pay to maintain bullish bets, often preceding price upticks. This dynamic, observed since late October, encourages more participation and liquidity, making it a reliable precursor to short-term rallies, as evidenced by past cycles where rates above 0.01% led to 10%+ gains.

Key Takeaways

• Bullish Signal from Index: The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index crossing zero highlights stronger buyer momentum, first since mid-October, supported by on-chain data.
• Funding Rates Trend: Sustained positive rates since October 22 indicate optimism, historically aligning with local bottoms turning into rallies.
• Reserve Ratio Alert: Binance’s third buy signal this cycle suggests capital inflows, urging investors to watch support at $107,500 for upside potential.

Conclusion

The recent surge in the Bitcoin Bull-Bear Structure Index above zero, coupled with positive Bitcoin funding rates and favorable stablecoin reserve ratios, underscores a robust bullish setup in the cryptocurrency market. As Bitcoin consolidates near $113,000 with solid support levels, these indicators point to sustained momentum driven by institutional inflows and reduced supply. Investors are advised to monitor key thresholds closely, positioning for potential advances toward $116,000 while staying informed on evolving market dynamics for long-term success.