Bitcoin Consolidates Above $111K as Analysts Warn of Possible Drop Below $100K Amid Mixed Technicals

• Key short-term levels: $110K support, $115K resistance

• Neutral momentum: RSI 46.39; MACD crossover suggests early bullish pressure

• Historical cycle risk: previous peaks and lunar-event warnings raise correction probabilities

Bitcoin price consolidates above $111K; expert COINOTAG analysis of support, resistance, RSI and MACD — read key levels to watch next.

What is driving the current Bitcoin price consolidation?

Bitcoin price is consolidating above $111,000 as traders weigh technical resistance near $115,000 against key support at $110,000. Mixed signals from momentum indicators and cooling volume suggest a period of indecision, with downside risk to $98K–$100K if support breaks.

How significant is the Blood Moon commentary on Bitcoin’s outlook?

Analyst commentary linking lunar events to market moves is anecdotal and should be treated as market sentiment, not deterministic forecasting. Historical notes: every “Blood Moon” since May 2021 coincided with bearish moves according to the analyst, but technical and volume evidence must guide risk management.

Bitcoin consolidates above $111K as analysts warn of a potential drop below $100K, with technicals showing mixed signals.

• Analyst Ted links the latest Blood Moon to potential Bitcoin weakness, cautioning about a correction below $100K.
• Bitcoin faces resistance near $115K while $110K acts as key support after peaking at $125K earlier in 2025.
• RSI shows neutral momentum at 46.39 while MACD crossover hints at early bullish pressure amid cooling volumes.

Bitcoin is trading at $111,178 after peaking near $125,000 earlier in 2025, with analysts cautioning about potential downside risks. According to analyst Ted, every “Blood Moon” since May 2021 has coincided with bearish moves for Bitcoin and altcoins.

He suggested another correction could unfold during the current lunar event, warning of a likely drop below $100,000. The market is in a key phase as technical signals and historical cycles show conflicting trends.

What does the historical structure show about long-term cycle behavior?

From the left side of the chart, Bitcoin peaked near $69,000 in late 2021 before entering a steep decline through 2022. A secondary high near $48,000 and a prolonged bear bottom around $16,000–$18,000 demonstrate the boom-bust nature of prior cycles.

This pattern displayed a boom-bust sequence where euphoria was followed by capitulation. The outlook shifted in 2023 as Bitcoin entered accumulation and recovery, surpassing $30K, $47K, and $66.5K before retesting and breaking records in 2024.

Recent advances carried prices above $125,000 in 2025, where the chart shows a potential macro peak. Clustered red markers at prior highs indicate traders are cautious about distribution before the next decisive move.

What are the key resistance levels and support zones traders should watch?

Bitcoin faced selling pressure near $74,000 in mid-2024 and again between $111,000–$115,000 in early 2025. These zones reflect psychological and structural supply points that influence intraday and swing trading decisions.

The $110,000 level is immediate support after the correction from $125,000. Sustaining $110K increases the probability of retests toward $115K–$120K. Failure below $105K could open a path to $98K–$100K, with deeper retracements toward $74K consistent with prior 30–50% cycle corrections.

How do current technical indicators influence short-term bias?

The RSI sits at 46.39 with the signal line at 42.81, indicating neutral momentum and more room to move before overbought/oversold extremes. This supports the interpretation of consolidation rather than an exhausted trend.

The MACD line at 190.92 crossing above the signal line (−1,201.29) with a positive histogram suggests early bullish pressure. However, volume has cooled versus May–July surges, implying weaker conviction and a higher chance of whipsaw price action until participation picks up.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the immediate risk if Bitcoin breaks $110K?

A decisive break below $110K raises the probability of a retest of $105K, then $98K–$100K. Such moves would reflect a deeper retracement and align with prior cycle corrections; traders should use risk controls and confirm with on-chain and volume data.

How reliable are lunar event correlations for trading decisions?

Lunar-event correlations are observational and not a substitute for technical or on-chain analysis. Use them only as sentiment indicators and prioritize empirical signals like RSI, MACD, volume, and order-flow when making trading decisions.

Key Takeaways

• Immediate levels: $110K support; $115K resistance.
• Indicators: RSI 46.39 (neutral); MACD crossover suggests early bullish bias but requires volume confirmation.
• Risk management: Failure below $105K increases likelihood of a move to $98K–$100K; set stops and size positions accordingly.

Conclusion

Bitcoin remains in consolidation above $111,000 with critical short-term support at $110,000 and resistance near $115,000. Technical indicators point to neutral momentum with early bullish MACD signals, but cooled volume and historical cycle markers warrant cautious positioning. COINOTAG will monitor on-chain flows and price action for updated guidance.