Bitcoin Could Be Preparing for a Rebound as Exchange Reserves Hit Decade Lows and NVT Signals Recovery

• Exchange reserves at decade lows (~2.4M BTC), indicating mounting accumulation.

• Improving NVT Golden Cross and resilient price near $107K support a possible renewed rally.

• Spot Taker CVD shows dominant sell-side in the short term; long-term buyers are absorbing pressure.

Bitcoin supply-side contraction: exchange reserves hit decade lows (~2.4M BTC). Read COINOTAG’s on-chain analysis and outlook for a potential breakout—stay informed.

What is Bitcoin’s supply-side contraction?

Bitcoin supply-side contraction describes the reduction of liquid BTC available on exchanges and in short-term circulation as coins move to long-term storage or institutional custody. This trend tightens available supply, which—when coupled with steady demand—can increase upside price pressure and improve the risk/reward profile over time.

How do falling exchange reserves affect market structure?

Lower exchange reserves reduce the pool of BTC immediately available for sale, amplifying the impact of buy orders. Data shows reserves fell from about 3.5 million BTC in 2020 to roughly 2.4 million BTC today, per on-chain monitoring platforms. This shift often coincides with increased accumulation by long-term holders and institutions and can precede larger structural rallies when sell-side liquidity is exhausted.

Will $107K become the new launchpad?

Price action has retraced into a $107K–$111K support band after rejections near $124K, forming what appears to be a higher-low pattern. This suggests accumulation near demand and buyer intent to defend the region. If buyers sustain this zone and sellers lose momentum, a decisive rebound could retest $124K as the next major resistance.

Chart-based signals should be read together with on-chain metrics: supply contraction and improving network activity increase the probability that a rebound from the $107K area could develop into a sustained move rather than a transient bounce.

Bitcoin’s [BTC] Exchange Reserves have plunged to their lowest level in over a decade, dropping to around 2.4 million BTC from 3.5 million in 2020. This is a sign of mounting accumulation by long-term holders and institutions.

This historic decline suggests a tightening supply that could lay the groundwork for the next major rally.

While Bitcoin currently trades near the $111K level after multiple rejections at higher resistance zones, on-chain data reveals structural strength beneath the surface, signaling that market fundamentals may be shifting toward long-term bullish territory.

Source: TradingView

Sell-side pressure dominates, but…

The Spot Taker CVD over the past 90 days shows a dominant sell-side presence, with taker sell volume outweighing buy orders. This confirms the recent correction phase as short-term traders offload near resistance. Data and charting for cumulative volume delta are tracked by on-chain analytics providers such as CryptoQuant (plain text reference).

Despite aggressive sell activity, price stability around the $107K support band implies that buy-side liquidity is absorbing flows. Historically, strong absorption at a defended support signals the participation of longer-term capital and reduces the risk of cascading liquidations.

COINOTAG’s market desk notes: “The interplay of persistent buying at demand zones and declining exchange reserves is the clearest early indicator of supply-driven market re-pricing.”

Source: CryptoQuant

NVT Golden Cross recovery signals renewed network vitality

NVT Golden Cross has climbed roughly 26.99% to about –0.66 at press time, moving away from deeply negative territory. This indicates transaction activity is gaining relative to market value and suggests improving network utility. Historically, recoveries in NVT when paired with supply contraction have often come before sustained price advances.

Official on-chain dashboards and analytics providers (plain text references: CryptoQuant, TradingView) register similar shifts in network metrics, reinforcing the view that fundamental health is improving even amid near-term volatility.

Source: CryptoQuant

Is Bitcoin quietly preparing for a new breakout phase?

Exchange reserves at decade lows, resilient price action near $107K, and improving NVT metrics together suggest structural bullishness beneath short-term volatility. While sell-side dominance persists on short horizons, persistent accumulation and supply tightening increase the odds that a decisive breakout could emerge once selling pressure fades.

COINOTAG analysis: observe supply-side metrics and NVT improvement as the primary indicators for a conviction trade; risk management remains essential given elevated short-term volatility.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do on-chain metrics confirm Bitcoin accumulation?

On-chain metrics such as exchange reserves, Spot Taker CVD, and NVT collectively indicate accumulation when reserves decline, cumulative delta shows buy absorption at support, and NVT improves. These measures signal reduced liquid supply and rising network utility, supporting a bullish structural view over time.

Could a sudden sell-off invalidate the supply-contraction thesis?

Yes. A swift increase in exchange inflows or a macro liquidity event could swamp current accumulation and push price lower. Watch exchange inflows, large transfers to exchanges, and shifts in derivatives funding as early warning signs.

Key Takeaways

• Supply contraction matters: Exchange reserves near decade lows (~2.4M BTC) indicate meaningful accumulation by long-term holders and institutions.
• On-chain health is improving: NVT Golden Cross recovery and steady transaction activity point to rising network utility, per on-chain analytics (CryptoQuant, TradingView).
• Risk management is essential: Short-term sell pressure remains; traders should combine on-chain signals with price structure and position sizing before acting.

Conclusion

Bitcoin supply-side contraction, improving NVT metrics, and defended price structure near $107K together present a credible case for a potential structural rebound. COINOTAG’s on-chain monitoring suggests the market is shifting toward accumulation, but short-term volatility persists. Monitor exchange reserves, Spot Taker CVD, and NVT for confirmation and manage risk accordingly. Stay updated with COINOTAG for continued on-chain coverage and data-driven outlooks.