Bitcoin Could Face Late-Cycle Sell Pressure as Long-Term Holders Realize Near-Record Profits and Exchange Inflows Rise

• Long-term holders realized nearly 3.27M BTC this cycle, matching 2021 levels

• Around 20,000 BTC (~$2.4B) moved to exchanges in two weeks, lifting potential sell pressure

• Weekly MACD death cross and weakest social sentiment since June signal elevated technical risk

Bitcoin realized profits nearing 3.27M BTC, long-term holders selling at higher prices; read for analysis and next steps.

Bitcoin long-term holders have realized near-record profits as exchange inflows and technical risks raise late-cycle market pressure.

What are Bitcoin realized profits and why do they matter?

Bitcoin realized profits measure gains when holders move coins that were previously acquired at lower prices and sell or transfer them, crystallizing gains. Rising realized profits indicate increased seller activity and can signal a late-cycle shift that may add downward pressure to prices.

How much have long-term Bitcoin holders realized in the current cycle?

Data shows long-term holders have realized nearly 3.27 million BTC in the ongoing cycle. That figure equals the fourth cycle (2021) but occurs at materially higher price levels, suggesting that profit-taking is concentrated among holders who accumulated earlier and are now cashing in at elevated valuations.

Why do recent exchange inflows matter for price risk?

Exchange inflows typically precede selling. Analysts report approximately 20,000 BTC (~$2.4B) moved to exchanges over two weeks, which increases available supply for market participants. When combined with profit realization peaking, this raises the probability of short-term price pressure.

When have realized-profit peaks historically signaled market turning points?

Historical cycles show realized-profit peaks often align with late-cycle distribution. For example, the 2017–2018 cycle recorded ~3.93M BTC realized gains at Bitcoin’s near-$20,000 peak. The current approach to 3.27M BTC echoes prior late-cycle patterns, though higher price context may change holder behavior.

Distinct Profit Cycles Show Shifting Holder Behavior

Five distinct realized-profit cycles are visible in Bitcoin’s history. Early cycles (2011) saw modest defaults of ~500k BTC. The 2013–2014 cycle expanded realized profits close to 2.5M BTC as adoption accelerated. The 2017–2018 cycle peaked near 3.93M BTC, while 2021 recorded ~3.27M BTC despite much higher prices.

BTC Bull Market chart, Source: Glassnode

The third cycle (2017–2018) saw the largest realized gains (~3.93M BTC) as Bitcoin reached nearly $20,000. The 2021 cycle realized ~3.27M BTC even as prices topped $60,000, indicating fewer holders sold proportionally despite higher nominal gains.

How are technical indicators shaping near-term risk?

Technicals add caution: social sentiment for Bitcoin dropped to its lowest level since June, and a weekly MACD death cross emerged, historically associated with increased downside risk. Nonetheless, price action has broken out of a prior trading channel, and some analysts now cite $106,000 and $100,000 as key upside targets if momentum returns.

What do analysts recommend given these signals?

Analysts advise monitoring exchange inflows, realized-profit trajectory, and weekly MACD behavior. Risk-managed approaches include setting defined sell limits, keeping position sizes aligned with risk tolerance, and watching on-chain metrics from analytics providers such as Glassnode for confirmation of distribution versus accumulation phases.

Frequently Asked Questions

How do realized profits differ from market cap gains?

Realized profits reflect actual gain events when coins move at higher cost bases, whereas market cap gains are unrealized valuation changes based on price alone. Realized metrics reveal concrete sell-side pressure.

Will realized profits automatically cause a price crash?

Not automatically. High realized profits increase the supply available to sell, which can pressure prices if demand does not absorb the flow. Context—exchange inflows, sentiment, and technical signals—determines the magnitude of any correction.

Key Takeaways

• Realized Profit Level: Current cycle near 3.27M BTC, matching 2021 but at higher prices.
• Exchange Flows: ~20,000 BTC (~$2.4B) moved to exchanges recently, raising sell pressure risk.
• Technical Signals: Weekly MACD death cross and weak sentiment suggest elevated downside risk; monitor on-chain indicators and exchange balances.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s long-term holders have realized substantial profits this cycle, matching past peaks while selling at higher price points. Combined with notable exchange inflows and bearish technicals, the data suggest increased late-cycle risk. Traders and investors should prioritize risk management and monitor realized-profit trends, exchange balances, and leading on-chain indicators for next steps.