Benjamin Cowen warns Bitcoin could see a steep bear-market drop — potentially up to a 70% drawdown from its cycle peak. Investors should plan risk management now, monitor on-chain and price signals, and prepare to rebalance positions if BTC approaches cycle highs.
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Bitcoin 70% drawdown warning — what it means for investors
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Historical cycle drawdowns (≈94%, 87%, ~77%) suggest large peak-to-trough moves are possible.
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Market signals to watch: BTC price action, ETH/BTC ratio, on-chain metrics, and macro liquidity.
Bitcoin 70% drawdown: Cowen warns of a possible steep correction—plan risk management and rebalancing now. Read expert steps to prepare.
Into The Cryptoverse founder Benjamin Cowen said such a steep drawdown isn’t guaranteed, but “history would at least caution us.”
What is Benjamin Cowen’s prediction about a Bitcoin 70% drawdown?
Benjamin Cowen said Bitcoin could drop as much as 70% from a yet-to-be-seen all-time high based on prior cycle patterns. He emphasised that a 70% drawdown “doesn’t have to happen,” but history of past cycles supports preparing for significant corrections.
How severe were prior Bitcoin cycle drawdowns?
Historical cycle peaks followed by major sell-offs recorded drawdowns of roughly 94%, 87%, and about 77% in previous cycles. These figures frame Cowen’s caution that steep corrections are plausible even after strong rallies.
| Cycle | Approx. Peak | Drawdown |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle 1 | Early peak | ~94% |
| Cycle 2 | Mid-cycle peak | ~87% |
| Cycle 3 | Most recent | ~77% |
Bitcoin is up 88.35% over the past 12 months. Source: CoinMarketCap
How would a 70% drawdown affect price projections like $250K BTC?
A 70% fall from a hypothetical $250,000 peak would reduce Bitcoin to roughly $75,000. Cowen says that if markets “start screaming higher” he will take profits into stablecoins and likely wait until mid‑2026 to re-enter, underscoring a defensive stance around potential cycle tops.
Will ETH outperform Bitcoin at the cycle end?
Cowen expects Ether (ETH) to initially lag Bitcoin but ultimately outperform into the end of the market cycle. He projects short-term weakness for ETH, followed by relative strength—supported by recent gains in the ETH/BTC ratio (TradingView data).
How should investors prepare for a potential Bitcoin 70% drawdown?
Prepare by defining risk limits, using position sizing, and planning re-entry rules. Short, actionable steps help preserve capital and capture opportunities after large corrections.
- Set stop-loss or size limits: Define maximum portfolio exposure to BTC and top altcoins.
- Take staged profits: Reduce exposure as price approaches new cycle highs.
- Keep dry powder: Hold a portion in stable assets for disciplined re-entry.
- Monitor signals: Watch on-chain metrics, ETH/BTC ratio, and macro liquidity indicators.
- Document a plan: Predefine price zones for buying, selling, and rebalancing.
Frequently Asked Questions
Could Bitcoin actually fall 70% in the next bear market?
Yes. Based on past cycle behavior and analyst commentary, a 70% drawdown is plausible but not guaranteed. Historical cycle corrections of 77%–94% inform this probability and advise conservative positioning.
When might a major Bitcoin correction occur?
Timing is uncertain. Analysts point to late-cycle rallies as potential peak windows; Cowen mentioned mid‑2026 as a re-entry horizon for him if a peak occurs sooner. Watch market breadth and macro liquidity for clearer signals.
How can investors protect gains during large rallies?
Use staged profit-taking, reduce leverage, rebalance to stable assets, and set clear re-entry criteria. These steps lower emotional decision-making and lock in gains before sharp reversals.
Key Takeaways
- Historical context: Bitcoin’s past cycles have seen very large drawdowns, informing Cowen’s caution.
- Risk management: Staged profit-taking and position sizing are essential if BTC approaches new highs.
- Watch indicators: On-chain metrics, ETH/BTC ratio, and macro factors offer actionable signals.
Conclusion
Benjamin Cowen’s 70% drawdown scenario is a reminder to balance optimism with prudence. Investors should adopt clear risk rules, monitor key price and on-chain indicators, and prepare tactical re-entry plans. COINOTAG will continue tracking authoritative data sources and analyst commentary to inform readers.
