Bitcoin Could See Seasonal Weakness as Traders Brace for Red September and Fed Policy Uncertainty

• Sentiment shift: Crypto Fear & Greed Index fell from 75 to 46, signaling “fear”.

• Macro risk: Markets price an 87% chance of a 0.25% Fed cut at the Sep 16–17 meeting.

• Technical snapshot: Bitcoin testing support near $108k; RSI ~40 and ADX 20 indicate consolidation.

Meta description: Red September risk for Bitcoin: BTC tests $108k support as sentiment falls into fear—read levels, indicators, and trader odds. (150-160 characters)

Why is September historically bad for Bitcoin?

Red September refers to Bitcoin’s seasonal weakness — Bitcoin has averaged a 3.77% decline each September since 2013. Market participants cite lower liquidity, macro calendar events and profit-taking as primary drivers of the pattern.

How is market sentiment changing at September’s open?

Sentiment has shifted sharply: the Crypto Fear and Greed Index slid from 75 in mid‑August to 46 today, the weakest since mid‑June. This tells traders that fear is rising, which often amplifies downside moves and makes range-bound price action more likely.

How is Bitcoin trading today and what do technicals show?

Bitcoin (BTC) is trading sideways at around $108,842, up ~0.53% from an intraday low of $107,270. Buyers appear to defend the psychological $108,000 level, while indicators point to consolidation rather than a trend.

Key technical readings:

• ADX: 20 — indicates no clear trend and choppy price action.
• RSI: 40 — approaching oversold territory; selling pressure rising.
• EMA structure: 50‑day EMA remains above 200‑day EMA but the gap is narrowing.
• Squeeze Momentum Indicator: “off” — recent volatility already released.

Plain text: Bitcoin price data. Image: Tradingview

Key Levels for Bitcoin

• Immediate support: $105,000 (psychological level and potential September target)
• Immediate resistance: $113,000 (previous consolidation and EMA50)

How are Ethereum and XRP positioned?

Ethereum (ETH) trades near $4,363, down ~0.66% on the day. ADX at 28 suggests established trend strength, RSI 57 indicates bullish momentum, but ETH failed to hold gains near $4,500.

XRP sits around $2.76, down ~0.5%. ADX 19 shows range-bound behavior, RSI 40 points toward growing selling pressure, and the token has broken below its 50‑day EMA in the short term.

Plain text: Ethereum price data. Image: Tradingview

Plain text: XRP price data. Image: Tradingview

Key Levels for Ethereum

• Immediate support: $4,360
• Strong support: $4,000 (psychological & 50‑day EMA)
• Immediate resistance: $4,490
• Strong resistance: $4,500

Key Levels for XRP

• Immediate support: $2.70
• Strong support: $2.50 (consolidation base & 200‑day EMA)
• Immediate resistance: $2.85 (EMA50)
• Strong resistance: $3.00

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin fall because of the Fed meeting?

Not necessarily. The Fed meeting increases volatility risk; markets now price an 87% chance of a 0.25% cut, which could either relieve pressure or trigger rotations depending on forward guidance and inflation data.

How can I spot a real trend versus choppy price action?

Look at ADX: readings above 25 typically confirm trend strength. Combine ADX with RSI and EMA alignment to determine whether price movement reflects a true trend or a range-bound environment.

Key Takeaways

• Seasonal risk: September has historically favored downside for Bitcoin — average drop ~3.77%.
• Sentiment: Fear & Greed Index moved from 75 to 46, increasing downside risk and reducing liquidity.
• Trade plan: Favor range strategies, reduce leverage, and watch Fed dates and CPI prints for catalyst-driven moves.

Conclusion

As September begins, the crypto market shows classic signs of seasonal caution: sentiment has slipped into fear and major macro events lie ahead. Traders should prioritize risk management, monitor indicators (ADX, RSI, EMAs), and be prepared for sharp moves around the Fed meeting. COINOTAG will continue to monitor levels and update coverage as markets evolve.

Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed are informational only and do not constitute financial advice.