Bitcoin Could See Upside Potential as US Dollar Weakens and Global Money Supply Hits Record Levels

• Bitcoin’s bullish momentum is gaining traction as the US dollar experiences its steepest decline in over five decades, signaling potential for significant BTC price appreciation.

• The surge in global M2 money supply to an unprecedented $55.48 trillion underpins increased liquidity, which historically precedes upward trends in Bitcoin’s valuation.

• According to COINOTAG analysts, the current macroeconomic environment, marked by a weakening US dollar and expanding money supply, sets the stage for Bitcoin to potentially reach new all-time highs.

Bitcoin poised for breakout as global liquidity hits record $55.48T and US dollar drops 10.8%, signaling strong upside potential for BTC in 2025.

Global M2 Money Supply Surge Drives Bitcoin’s Next Potential Rally

The global M2 money supply, a broad measure of liquid assets including cash, checking deposits, and easily convertible near money, recently reached a historic peak of $55.48 trillion. This surge reflects an abundance of capital in the financial system, which often flows into higher-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies.

Bitcoin’s price movements have consistently demonstrated a correlation with M2 liquidity trends, typically lagging by three to six months. This lag allows investors to anticipate potential BTC price rallies following significant expansions in money supply. For instance, the breakout above $100,000 in April 2025 occurred with minimal lag, underscoring the accelerating influence of liquidity on Bitcoin’s price dynamics.

Unlike speculative rallies driven by short-term market sentiment, M2-driven uptrends tend to be more sustainable and supported by fundamental liquidity growth. This distinction suggests that the current Bitcoin cycle may be underpinned by genuine capital inflows rather than transient speculative interest.

As analyst Crypto Auris notes, “The expanding global money supply is a critical tailwind for Bitcoin, positioning it to target approximately $170,000 in the near term.” This outlook is bolstered by increasing institutional participation, including significant inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and corporate treasury allocations.

Institutional Demand and ETF Inflows Bolster Bitcoin’s Liquidity Backing

Institutional adoption remains a pivotal factor in Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The cumulative inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs have surged, reflecting growing confidence among large-scale investors. These inflows provide a steady source of demand, enhancing market depth and reducing volatility.

Corporations are also increasingly allocating portions of their treasury reserves to Bitcoin, viewing it as a hedge against inflation and currency depreciation. This institutional interest complements the macroeconomic backdrop of rising global liquidity, creating a robust foundation for sustained BTC appreciation.

Data from Farside Investors highlights a consistent upward trend in ETF flows, underscoring the maturation of Bitcoin as an asset class and its integration into mainstream financial portfolios.

US Dollar Weakness Amplifies Bitcoin’s Appeal as an Alternative Store of Value

The US Dollar Index (DXY) has declined by 10.8% in the first half of 2025, marking its worst performance since the dissolution of the Bretton Woods system in 1973. This significant depreciation reduces the dollar’s purchasing power and increases the attractiveness of alternative assets like Bitcoin.

Bitcoin’s 13.25% gain over the same period highlights its negative correlation with the US dollar, a relationship that has historically signaled pivotal market shifts. Past divergences between BTC and DXY, such as those observed in late 2020, have preceded major Bitcoin rallies.

The recent divergence beginning in April 2025, with DXY falling below the critical 100 threshold, suggests a potential inflection point. If historical patterns hold, this could herald a sustained Bitcoin uptrend, further supported by ongoing dollar weakness.

Historical Correlations Between Bitcoin and the US Dollar Index

Analysis of previous market cycles reveals that Bitcoin and the US dollar often move inversely during key phases. For example, the bear markets in 2018 and 2022 coincided with rising DXY and declining BTC prices, whereas the November 2020 divergence marked the onset of a significant bull run.

Currently, the near lockstep movement between BTC and DXY until early 2024 gave way to a clear divergence, reinforcing the narrative of Bitcoin’s emerging strength amid dollar softness. Market strategist Justin Wu emphasizes that this dynamic is critical for forecasting Bitcoin’s medium-term price action.

Conclusion

Bitcoin’s outlook for 2025 is increasingly optimistic, supported by record-high global liquidity and a weakening US dollar. The historical correlation between M2 money supply expansions and Bitcoin price rallies suggests that BTC could target new highs around $170,000. Institutional demand, particularly through ETF inflows, further strengthens this bullish case. Meanwhile, the significant decline in the US Dollar Index enhances Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge and alternative store of value. Investors should monitor these macroeconomic indicators closely, as they provide valuable signals for Bitcoin’s potential trajectory in the coming months.