Bitcoin Could Test $116.5K as Profit-Taking Falls and Donchian Channel Signals Potential Breakout

• BTC pressing $116.4k resistance

• Profit-taking intensity has fallen despite high realized profit levels.

• Donchian channel and composite signals point to continued buyer dominance; watch $116.5k for confirmation.

Meta description: Bitcoin momentum shows renewed bullish conviction on 15 September; watch $116.5k for a breakout — read the latest analysis and next steps.

What is Bitcoin’s current momentum as of 15 September?

Bitcoin momentum paused over the weekend but regained upward conviction on 15 September, driven by a bullish composite signal and subdued profit-taking. Short-term strength hinges on a decisive break and hold above $116.5k to confirm continuation toward higher local highs.

Why has profit-taking intensity fallen and what does it mean?

Realised profit data shows peak selling in July near 23,000 BTC, lower than prior peaks of 48k BTC and 39k BTC in earlier cycles. This decline in profit-taking intensity suggests selling pressure is fading and the pullback is more likely a consolidation than a trend reversal.

Frequently Asked Questions

How does the Donchian channel indicate the next BTC move?

Using a 21-day Donchian channel, resistance is identified at $116.4k and support at $107.5k. BTC pressing the upper boundary with a +0.6 composite signal points to buyer momentum and a probable breakout; traders should monitor confirmation above $116.5k and a retest that holds as validation.

Who is driving recent price swings — retail or whales?

Recent volatility has been driven mainly by retail traders, while whale activity has been muted. That explains the lack of a sustained long-term trend since mid-July and supports the view that recent weakness is temporary rather than structural.

How to assess Bitcoin momentum using on-chain and technical cues

Key Takeaways

• Short-term trigger: A close and hold above $116.5k would confirm renewed short-term bullish momentum.
• Profit-taking trend: Realized profit peaks are lower than previous cycles, indicating less aggressive selling.
• Market drivers: Retail traders are driving volatility while whales remain relatively inactive, making moves more range-bound until institutional participation rises.

Profit-taking intensity falls

Source: Darkfost (plain text)

As Bitcoin climbed, realized profit-taking diminished. Realized Profit peaked at about 23,000 BTC in July when BTC traded near $123.2k. Earlier peaks reached 48k BTC (March 2024) and 39k BTC (January 2025), showing a downtrend in sell intensity.

This pattern indicates sell pressure is easing as the cycle advances, which supports longer-term holders and reduces the probability of a sustained reversal.

Donchian channel signals the next BTC move

Source: Axel Adler Jr Insights (plain text)

Analyst Axel Adler Jr used a Bitcoin Structure Shift Composite Signal with the 21-day Donchian channel to mark resistance at $116.4k and support at $107.5k. BTC pressing the upper band with a +0.6 composite reading indicates buyer momentum, making a breakout likely; a failed breakout could retrace to $113.9k.

Conclusion

Bitcoin momentum appears to have resumed on 15 September, supported by falling profit-taking intensity and bullish Donchian channel signals. A confirmed break and hold above $116.5k will be the clearest signal of continued upside. Monitor realized profit metrics and the Donchian upper boundary for trade confirmation and risk management.