Bitcoin Could Trade Near $116K as Fed 25bp Cut Signals Possible Post‑LTCM Easing

• Fed cuts 25 bps: market-expected and priced in

• Bitcoin briefly topped $116,000 on Bitstamp before stabilizing around $115,997.

• Markets now price additional easing; FOMC dot plot suggests three cuts this year (majority view).

Fed rate cut leads Bitcoin price spike; read analysis on market reaction and what investors should watch next. Stay informed with COINOTAG coverage.

What is the Fed rate cut and how did markets react?

The Fed rate cut is a 25 basis point reduction in the federal funds rate, implemented to ease financial conditions. Markets reacted with immediate risk-on flows: equities and gold rose while Bitcoin spiked above $116,000 on Bitstamp before settling near $115,997.

The decision aligned with most market expectations; only a few institutions anticipated a different outcome. Kalshi showed about a 7% probability of a larger cut before the announcement.

BTC/USD by TradingView

What dilemma does the Fed face going forward?

The Fed must balance a weakening jobs market against persistent inflation. That creates a policy dilemma: cut too quickly and risk rekindling inflation; stay tight and deepen a labor slowdown.

FOMC communications now show a modestly dovish tilt. The dot plot indicates a narrow majority favoring around three cuts this year, and market pricing reflects expectations of two additional cuts in Q4 2024.

How does this affect crypto markets, specifically Bitcoin?

Short-term: easier policy tends to boost risk assets, including Bitcoin. Traders moved to price in higher liquidity and improved risk appetite following the cut.

Medium-term: persistent inflation or a reversal in labor weakness could alter expectations and trigger volatility. Investors should monitor CPI data, FOMC minutes, and key labor reports.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will more Fed cuts drive Bitcoin higher?

Additional cuts typically support risk assets and could lift Bitcoin, but the relationship is conditional. Key drivers include inflation data, liquidity flows, and macro stability. Expect volatility around major data releases.

What should investors watch next?

Watch CPI, PCE, weekly jobless claims, and FOMC minutes. Market-implied probabilities from trading venues and commentary from Fed officials will shape near-term price action.

Key Takeaways

• Fed action: 25 bps cut aligns with market expectations and suggests a modestly dovish path.
• Bitcoin reaction: BTC spiked above $116,000 on Bitstamp; immediate risk-on flows lifted crypto and equities.
• Investor action: Monitor inflation and labor data, adjust exposure to risk assets, and prepare for continued volatility.

Conclusion

The Fed rate cut was a calibrated move that sparked a short-term rally in Bitcoin and broader risk assets. Investors should remain focused on incoming macro data and FOMC communications as they reassess positioning. For ongoing coverage and analysis, follow COINOTAG updates and official Fed releases.

By COINOTAG — Published: 2025-09-17 | Updated: 2025-09-17