- Quantitative analyst PlanB predicts a Bitcoin bull market with intense FOMO and price fluctuations.
- Following the end of the accumulation phase, Bitcoin surges past $60,000 for the first time in over two years.
- “If history is any guide, we will see ~10 months of face-melting FOMO: extreme price pumps combined with multiple -30% drops,” states PlanB.
This article explores the latest Bitcoin bull market forecast by analyst PlanB, the implications of the stock-to-flow model, and the role of new Bitcoin ETFs in shaping investor interest and market dynamics.
The Start of a New Bitcoin Bull Market
The official start of the Bitcoin bull market was declared on March 1 by PlanB, a pseudonymous quantitative analyst known for the stock-to-flow (S2F) model. This model, while controversial, has been a popular tool for predicting Bitcoin prices. PlanB’s announcement came shortly after Bitcoin broke the $60,000 barrier, a level not seen in over two years. Despite the S2F model’s imperfect predictions, the recent price movements align with PlanB’s bullish expectations.
Understanding the Stock-to-Flow Model
The S2F model, which has gained traction among cryptocurrency investors, attempts to predict Bitcoin’s price based on its scarcity. However, Ethereum co-founder Vitalik Buterin and others have criticized the model for offering a false sense of certainty to investors. While the model predicted a $100,000 Bitcoin price by early August 2021, actual prices were significantly lower, highlighting the model’s limitations.
Impact of Bitcoin Halving and ETF Approvals
The post-halving period is typically followed by market consolidation, with significant rallies occurring months later. Senior analyst Vetle Lunde from K33 Research notes the positive directional impact of reduced miner selling pressure 150-400 days post-halving. Furthermore, the approval of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) has significantly contributed to growing investor interest, leading to a noticeable price appreciation in Bitcoin.
Recent Market Corrections and ETF Influence
Despite a recent 3% correction attributed to Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust ETF selling off $598.9 million worth of BTC, the overall market trend for Bitcoin remains positive, with a more than 22% increase over the past week. New spot Bitcoin ETFs have seen over $2 billion in combined daily volume, capturing 75% of new Bitcoin investments since their launch. This influx of passive, price-agnostic demand is expected to drive Bitcoin to new all-time highs before the end of 2024, with Bitfinex Analysts forecasting a conservative price target of $100,000-$120,000 by Q4 2024.
Conclusion
As Bitcoin enters a new bull market phase, the interplay between the S2F model, halving events, and the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs is crafting a complex narrative of anticipation and speculation. Despite the criticisms and the inherent unpredictability of the cryptocurrency market, the consensus among analysts points towards significant growth potential in the coming months. Investors are advised to stay informed and consider the diverse factors at play in this evolving market landscape.
