Bitcoin ETFs are making traders nervous due to their history of marking BTC price local tops in 2024. As institutions continue to invest heavily in United States spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), the need for Bitcoin (BTC) to avoid potential “local tops” becomes crucial. Analyst Mark Cullen emphasized this concern in a thread on X on October 30, noting the risks of “ETF FOMO,” which could impact price stability.
Institutional investors are sparking hundreds of millions of dollars in net inflows to US spot Bitcoin ETFs daily. Recent data from UK-based Farside Investors indicates that net inflows for October 30 alone were nearly $900 million – marking it as the second-largest day for ETF inflows ever recorded.
However, for seasoned market participants, the growth in ETF inflows feels like an elephant in the room. Historically, during Bitcoin’s ascent to all-time highs in March 2024, ETF successes coincided with multi-month price consolidations. “The last couple of times the Bitcoin ETF flows were ~$900m+ and Price was > 70k, it signaled a local top. Just something to think about,” Cullen warned.
Bitcoin ETF Inflows See Mixed Reactions
The current wave of institutional investments in Bitcoin ETFs brings both excitement and trepidation. While large inflows signify robust interest, they have historically led to BTC price stagnation or declines shortly thereafter. Cullen remarked on the recent substantial inflows, “With another huge inflow day for the Bitcoin ETFs but little to no progress in price, let’s hope the ETF FOMO isn’t going to mark a local top again this close to a new ATH.”
Understanding Over-the-Counter (OTC) Dynamics
In contrast to earlier market conditions, the present availability of Bitcoin on OTC desks allows for significant buying by ETFs without majorly affecting the spot price. CryptoQuant, an on-chain analytics platform, noted in its recent report that the current purchases from ETFs only represent 1% to 2% of the total Bitcoin available on OTC desks. This is a marked decline from the 9% to 12% range seen earlier in the year, suggesting a more stable market for larger purchases.
Furthermore, as CryptoQuant highlighted, for the demand to change, ETF inflows would need to increase significantly. “The bright spot is that OTC desks’ total Bitcoin balance is no longer growing at the pace it did in Q2–Q3 2024,” the report clarified. Notably, in recent months, the balance on OTC desks has shrunk, which contrasts sharply with Bitcoin price gains during Q1 2024.
BTC Price Discovery Anticipated
As of October 31, BTC/USD was trading near $72,000, according to data from COINOTAG Markets Pro and TradingView. With Bitcoin achieving new all-time highs against various global currencies, including the euro, analysts believe a return to US dollar price discovery for BTC is imminent. William Clemente, co-founder of cryptocurrency research firm Reflexivity, commented, “All of the suits who aped the ETF are now in profit and can start shilling IBIT to their other suit friends who just watched gold go on an insane move into price discovery.”
Highlighting the momentum surrounding ETFs, Clemente referenced the iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) from BlackRock, which experienced net inflows totaling $875 million on October 30 alone. Bloomberg ETF analyst Eric Balchunas anticipates that the total Bitcoin holdings among ETF providers will soon exceed 1 million BTC. He remarked that the rapid growth of IBIT—a fund that amassed $30 billion in assets in just 293 days—exemplifies the speed at which institutional interest is growing.
Conclusion
In conclusion, the current surge in Bitcoin ETF inflows presents both opportunities and challenges for Bitcoin traders. With historical patterns suggesting potential local tops amid rising ETF interest, market participants should approach with caution. The dynamics of OTC desks and institutional demand will play a pivotal role in shaping the next steps for BTC’s price trajectory as the crypto market navigates this evolving landscape.
