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Bitcoin is struggling to hold above $116,000 despite US jobs data indicating labor market weakness, which has increased expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, fueling hopes for a potential short squeeze and dip-buying activity.
Bitcoin attempts a rebound following weaker-than-expected US nonfarm payrolls data.
BTC price remains below $116,000, with order-book liquidity suggesting a possible short squeeze near $120,000.
Dip-buying activity is evident on Bitfinex, signaling trader confidence at lower levels.
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How US Jobs Data Influences Bitcoin’s Price Movement
Bitcoin’s price action is closely tied to US economic indicators, with the recent July nonfarm payrolls report showing only 73,000 new jobs, well below the 100,000 forecast. This labor market weakness has shifted market expectations toward an earlier Federal Reserve interest rate cut, providing bullish momentum for Bitcoin despite its current resistance below $116,000.
What Does the Labor Market Weakness Mean for Bitcoin Traders?
Market participants are interpreting the subdued jobs growth as a signal that the Fed may ease monetary policy sooner than anticipated. This has led to increased optimism for a rate-cut-driven rally in Bitcoin. However, some analysts caution that significant downward revisions to previous months’ job data raise questions about the accuracy of the labor market’s health, adding uncertainty to the outlook.
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What Is Driving BTC Price Action and Liquidity Squeeze Expectations?
Bitcoin’s order-book data reveals large blocks of short liquidations clustered near the $120,000 level, suggesting a potential liquidity squeeze. Traders anticipate a price surge once these shorts are triggered, as highlighted by crypto investor Ted Pillows. This dynamic, combined with dip-buying activity on exchanges like Bitfinex, points to growing bullish sentiment despite recent price struggles.
How Are Traders Reacting to Current Market Conditions?
Exchange volume data shows increased buying interest below $115,000, particularly on Bitfinex. This dip-buying behavior indicates confidence among traders that Bitcoin’s recent lows represent attractive entry points. Additionally, comparisons to earlier 2025 price action suggest a possible repeat of bullish trends if key resistance levels are breached.
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Fed target rate comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
BTC order-book liquidity heatmap. Source: Ted Pillows/X
BTC/USDT 1-day chart. Source: CrypNuevo/X
What Are the Key Market Risks and Opportunities for Bitcoin?
While the labor market data has injected optimism, risks remain from potential data inaccuracies and geopolitical factors impacting trade tariffs. Traders should watch for confirmation of a sustained breakout above $116,000 to validate bullish momentum. The presence of significant short liquidity near $120,000 offers an opportunity for a sharp price move if triggered.
How Could Federal Reserve Policy Impact Bitcoin’s Trajectory?
The Federal Reserve’s stance remains pivotal. Despite recent hawkish comments from Chair Jerome Powell, market expectations have shifted toward a rate cut in September. This policy pivot could enhance Bitcoin’s appeal as a hedge against tightening financial conditions, but uncertainty around economic data revisions tempers enthusiasm.
Frequently Asked Questions
What factors are currently influencing Bitcoin’s price volatility?
Bitcoin’s volatility is driven by US economic data, especially labor market reports, Federal Reserve policy signals, and exchange order-book liquidity dynamics.
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How might Federal Reserve rate cuts impact Bitcoin?
Rate cuts typically increase liquidity and reduce borrowing costs, which can lead to higher demand for Bitcoin as investors seek alternative assets.
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Key Takeaways
US labor market weakness: July jobs data missed estimates, increasing rate-cut expectations.
Liquidity squeeze potential: Large short positions near $120,000 could trigger rapid price moves.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s price action reflects a complex interplay between US economic data and trader behavior. While labor market weakness has raised hopes for Federal Reserve easing, Bitcoin remains capped below $116,000, awaiting a decisive breakout. Market participants should monitor liquidity levels and policy signals closely for clues on the next major move.
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Bitcoin bulls are struggling to keep the market off new three-week lows despite a potential tailwinds coming from the US labor market.
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Key points:
Bitcoin attempts to cement a rebound thanks to US jobs data showing labor market weakness.
BTC price action remains below $116,000, but order-book data has traders favoring a short squeeze.
Evidence of dip-buying emerges on major exchange Bitfinex.
Bitcoin (BTC) rejected from $116,000 at Friday’s Wall Street open as bulls sought a comeback from US trade-tariff lows.
Bitcoin bounces as US jobs miss boosts rate-cut odds
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed BTC/USD selling off at the start of the US trading session, retargeting local lows.
Nerves over a raft of new US trade tariffs had sent the pair as low as $114,116, and traders were split over what might happen next.
US jobs data helped boost the mood, however, July nonfarm payrolls came in at 73,000, well below the 100,000 estimate and indicative of the labor market starting to struggle.
This, in turn, boosted the odds of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates sooner, just days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell adopted a hawkish tone on future policy.
The latest data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed market expectations rotating back to favoring a rate cut at the Fed’s September meeting.
Fed target rate comparison for September FOMC meeting (screenshot). Source: CME Group
Reacting, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter took issue with jobs revisions and the numbers contrasting with the Fed’s take on labor market strength.
“There are 2 scenarios after today’s data: 1. The US labor market is entering a recession 2. Something is seriously wrong with the data,” it wrote in posts on X, calling downward revisions for May and June “massive.”
“The unemployment rate is rising and -258,000 jobs have seemingly disappeared from the data in 2 months.”
Source: Truth Social
US President Donald Trump also responded, adding to existing pressure on Powell to cut rates.
BTC price analysis eyes liquidity squeeze
Turning to BTC price action, market participants once again eyed exchange order-book liquidity for hints as to the next move.
Large blocks of short liquidations lay in wait closer to $120,000 — a level long overdue for a revisit after successive “grabs” targeting longs.
“Just a matter of time before Bitcoin grabs it,” crypto investor and entrepreneur Ted Pillows argued alongside data from monitoring resource CoinGlass.
