Bitcoin Holds $81K as Strategy Resumes Buys, MVRV Flashes Bullish Reversal and ETPs Capture $858M

Bitcoin News

Michael Saylor has pushed back forcefully against the narrative that Strategy will become a meaningful seller of Bitcoin, framing potential dividend-funding sales as economically trivial. In recent remarks, the executive chairman argued the company would still buy roughly twenty coins for every one sold, dismissing the proposition as a "nothing burger" given current liquidity conditions across spot venues. He emphasized that Strategy now operates as a full-spectrum capital markets vehicle, balancing BTC yield against credit impact when allocating between coin purchases, debt retirement, and share buybacks. The framing aims to defuse investor anxiety triggered during the firm's most recent earnings call.

Spot price action remains pinned beneath the 200-day exponential moving average near $82,039, a level that has triggered sharp drawdowns of 25% to 36% on every rejection since November 2025. BTC dipped under $82,000 in early-week trade, yet bulls are defending the $81,500 zone aggressively as the 20-day EMA continues to slope higher. Social sentiment readings show a bullish-to-bearish comment ratio of roughly 1.5 to 1, a tilt some analysts warn may cap immediate upside. Traders are eyeing a decisive daily close above $84,000 to validate continuation toward the mid-$80,000s before week-end.

A potentially historic shift is forming on the Market Value to Realized Value indicator, where the MVRV ratio is on the cusp of a golden cross against its 200-day EMA. Previous instances of this crossover preceded the 90% rally from $16,300 to $31,000 in early 2023 and the 400% advance that culminated in the $126,000 all-time high in October 2025. Short-term holder cost basis has also reset higher as new entrants returned to profit, with the "heated" risk band sitting near $92,000 and the overheated threshold around $104,000. Analysts describe the configuration as a textbook macro reversal signal.

Strategy resumed its accumulation campaign by purchasing 535 BTC for approximately $43 million between May 4 and May 10, paying an average price of $80,340 per coin. The transaction was funded almost entirely through Class A common stock sales, with a small slice raised via the Stretch preferred (STRC) issuance. Total holdings now stand at 818,869 BTC acquired for roughly $61.86 billion, an average cost basis of $75,540. MSTR shares climbed 4.3% in pre-market trade, taking year-to-date gains to 23% despite Bitcoin's 7.2% slide over the same window. The buy marks the first acquisition since April 27.

Saylor sharpened his messaging by clarifying that the operative principle is "never be a net seller," not absolute non-sale. He pegged the company's break-even issuance rate at 2.3% of holdings annually, while current issuance runs between 15% and 20%, leaving wide room for accretive accumulation even when dividends are funded via coin sales. The $3.2 billion STRC issuance in April carried roughly $80 to $90 million in quarterly dividend obligations, implying a 30-to-1 buy-to-sell ratio. CEO Phong Le added that Bitcoin sales remain a tool only when more accretive on a per-share basis than equity issuance.

Regulatory tailwinds are sharpening sentiment, with the Senate Banking Committee setting May 14 as the markup date for the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act. Compromise language banning passive stablecoin yield while permitting activity-based rewards has resolved the bill's central sticking point. Capital flows reflect the improving backdrop: crypto investment products attracted $858 million last week, extending a six-week inflow streak to $4.9 billion, with Bitcoin-focused vehicles capturing over $700 million. Short-BTC ETF products simultaneously logged their largest annual outflow at $14 million, signaling capitulation among bearish allocators.

At $81,704 with a 0.80% daily pullback, Bitcoin is consolidating between immediate support at $81,580 and resistance at $82,876, with deeper bids stacked at $80,330 and $78,860. RSI prints 66.25, firmly in bullish territory but approaching overbought, while a bullish MACD signal aligns with the broader uptrend structure. A decisive break above $82,876 opens the path to $84,595 and the $89,065 cluster; failure to hold $80,330 would expose $78,860 and invalidate near-term continuation. The thesis breaks on a daily close below the $78,860 demand zone, which would unwind the 200-day EMA reclaim setup.