Bitcoin Market Awaits June 28 Options Expiry Amid Notable Decline in Volatility

• The crypto market saw the expiration of approximately 20,000 Bitcoin options, carrying a notional value of $1.35 billion.
• This week’s options expiry is substantially smaller than previous events, suggesting a limited impact on the market.
• Looking ahead, a significant Bitcoin options expiry is set for June 28, with a massive $6.7 billion in derivatives expected to expire.

This article delves into the recent Bitcoin options expiry and explores its implications on the broader crypto market, providing keen insights for investors and traders.

Insights into Bitcoin Options Expiry

The 20,000 BTC contracts expiring today have a put/call ratio of 0.49, indicating a predominance of long (call) positions over short (put) positions. The max pain point for these contracts is set at $68,500, which is slightly above the current spot prices.

Bulls are maintaining a stronghold in the BTC derivatives market, with nearly $1 billion in open interest at the $100,000 strike price. Additionally, strike prices of $75,000 and $80,000 have substantial open interest values of $723 million and $807 million, respectively, according to Deribit.

Market Quiet Amid Low Volatility

Crypto derivatives provider Greeks Live observed that despite significant macroeconomic data releases in the United States, the crypto market has remained underwhelming, with major coins and altcoins experiencing declines. They noted, “There are fewer hot spots in the market recently, and the market is relatively quiet.”

On June 14, 2024, data showed 20,000 BTC options expired with a Put Call Ratio of 0.49, a maximum pain point of $68,500, and a notional value of $1.35 billion. Additionally, 200,000 Ethereum options expired with a put/call ratio of 0.36, a max pain point of $3,600, and a notional value of $710 million. Short-term implied volatility for both Bitcoin and Ethereum has dipped, with Bitcoin’s falling below 50% and Ethereum’s below 60%.

Current Crypto Market Outlook

Over the past 24 hours, the total crypto market capitalization has remained steady around $2.57 trillion. Despite this stability, the market has faced a 7.5% decline over the past ten days.

Bitcoin traded around $67,000 on Friday morning after dipping from a weekly high of around $69,500. Analysts attribute the decline to profit-taking by Bitcoin miners. Chart expert Peter Brandt emphasized potential support levels should the market face further declines, noting that breaking through $65,000 could lead to a drop to $60,000, and breaking $60,000 may result in a fall to $48,000.

Chart of interest – Bitcoin $BTC: Sometimes the most obvious interpretations of a chart work out, most of the time the charts morph. But the most obvious is this: Break through 65,000, then mkt goes to 60,000 Break through 60,000 mkt goes to 48,000

— Peter Brandt (@PeterLBrandt) June 13, 2024

Ethereum has also faced a challenging week, dropping 7.7% to hit a four-week low of $3,434 on June 13 before a slight recovery to $3,515.

Conclusion

The recent Bitcoin options expiry has had a limited impact on the market due to its relatively smaller scale compared to future events. As the market continues to navigate significant expirations and macroeconomic factors, investors should remain vigilant. The crypto market’s near-term trajectory hinges on upcoming events and announcements, such as the impending Ethereum ETF news.