Bitcoin’s bull trend is likely to continue as spot turnover and exchange reserve dynamics show rising trading intensity, and macro data (PPI deflation and softer CPI) increase the probability of Fed rate cuts—supporting BTC upside while keeping $108.1k as a key short-term support level.
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BTC uptrend supported by higher spot turnover intensity vs. exchange reserves
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Macro data (PPI deflation, softer CPI) has raised market odds of Fed easing, boosting risk appetite.
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Short-term holder realized price at $108.1k acts as a critical support; watch trading volume over 5–7 days.
Bitcoin bull trend: BTC supported by rising spot turnover and macro easing signals—watch $108.1k support and 5–7 day volume confirmation. Read more now.
What is driving the current Bitcoin bull trend?
Bitcoin bull trend is being driven by rising spot turnover intensity relative to exchange reserves and supportive macro data. Over the past 48 hours BTC rose ~3.53% from $111.5k to $115.4k as traders responded to Producer Price Index deflation signals and a softer CPI print, which together increased rate-cut probabilities.
How does spot turnover intensity signal market strength?
Spot turnover intensity measures trading volume versus exchange reserves. High turnover relative to reserves indicates active buying and strong market confidence. CryptoQuant analysis highlights that rising turnover and falling reserves typically accompany sustained rallies. Conversely, increased reserves with falling turnover can signal weakening demand and potential selling pressure.
Frequently Asked Questions
What recent macro releases matter for BTC?
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics released August 2025 CPI data on 11 September 2025. Producer Price Index readings in 2025 showed deflationary signals for the third time this year. These data points increased market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts at the upcoming FOMC meeting, which typically raises risk-on flows and supports crypto demand.
Data shows that the BTC bull trend is likely to continue
Source: CryptoQuant (plain text reference)
Analysts at CryptoQuant highlighted that August’s BTC surge was accompanied by rising trading volume and improved reserve trends. Higher spot turnover intensity relative to exchange reserves indicates BTC was being actively traded rather than accumulated idly on exchanges. That dynamic supports the case for continued upward momentum.
Practically, traders should watch for two confirmations: (1) sustained volume above recent averages for 5–7 days, and (2) declining exchange reserves on high-volume days. Both conditions reduce the likelihood of a sudden dump and increase the probability of a continuation higher.
Source: Alphractal on X (plain text reference)
Regional equity markets matter. The Korea Composite Stock Price Index (KOSPI) reached a new cycle high, and historically each KOSPI all-time high has coincided with BTC trading near cycle highs. This correlation does not imply immediate profit-taking, but it can signal the late phase of a cycle—suggesting a timeline for when the bull market may round off.
Source: Axel Adler Jr on X (plain text reference)
Crypto analyst Axel Adler Jr noted the short-term holder (STH) realized price near $108.1k. As long as BTC remains above this realized-price support, the probability of a deep reset is limited. A breach with worsening turnover/reserve dynamics would raise the risk of a larger correction.
When should traders be cautious?
Exercise caution around major macro releases (CPI, PPI, payrolls) and the FOMC decision window. Short-term volatility tends to spike in the hours before and after these events. Use stop management and avoid aggressive leverage during headline-driven price moves.
Key Takeaways
- Volume-confirmation matters: Seek 5–7 day volume support plus falling exchange reserves to confirm continuation.
- Macro backdrop supportive: PPI deflation and softer CPI raised Fed easing odds, favoring risk assets like BTC.
- Technical support: $108.1k (STH realized price) is a key short-term support; maintain risk controls around it.
Conclusion
The current evidence—higher spot turnover intensity, reserve trends, and a macro backdrop that increases the chance of Fed rate cuts—supports the view that the Bitcoin bull trend is more likely to continue than to reverse sharply in the near term. Traders should monitor 5–7 day volume, exchange reserves, and the $108.1k support while managing risk. COINOTAG will update this story as new data emerges.
