Bitcoin is facing extended selling pressure into year-end 2025, with analysts warning of persistent weakness as investors unwind positions in BTC and spot ETFs. The cryptocurrency, currently around $91,200, has dropped over 20% in the past month amid liquidations and risk-off sentiment, but signs of stabilization are emerging near key support levels.
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Analysts predict ongoing selling as recent buyers liquidate BTC holdings and ETF shares amid broader market caution.
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Bitcoin’s recent bounce from the $82,000 real market average indicates partial capitulation, yet full recovery hinges on long-term holder accumulation.
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Data shows a 30% decline from the early-October peak of $126,000, driven by leveraged liquidations totaling billions and shifts to assets like gold.
Discover why Bitcoin faces extended selling pressure in late 2025 and what it means for investors. Stay informed on crypto trends and secure your portfolio today.
What Is Causing Bitcoin’s Extended Selling Pressure Toward Year-End 2025?
Bitcoin’s extended selling pressure stems from a combination of leveraged liquidations, profit-taking by short-term holders, and broader risk aversion in financial markets. As the cryptocurrency stabilizes near $91,200 after a sharp 20% drop over the past 30 days, analysts highlight the unwinding of positions opened during the summer rally above $100,000. This phase, while challenging, aligns with historical patterns where weaker hands exit before stronger accumulation takes hold.
How Are Bitcoin Spot ETFs Influencing Current Market Dynamics?
Bitcoin spot ETFs serve as a vital barometer for investor sentiment, with recent outflows signaling caution among institutional players. According to research from Compass Point, the aggregate cost basis for ETF investors—known as the Real Market Average—sits around $82,000, from which Bitcoin has begun a tentative rebound. This level reflects the average entry point for many funds this cycle, and the current price action above it suggests some capitulation has occurred, but not enough to mark a definitive bottom.
Ed Engel, an analyst at Compass Point, explains that ETF flows directly impact price direction: “Inflows build momentum during rallies, while outflows amplify corrections, as seen in the recent 30% slide from Bitcoin’s $126,000 peak in early October.” Supporting data from on-chain metrics shows billions in leveraged long positions liquidated over the past month, exacerbating the downturn. Engel adds that rotations into traditional safe havens like gold and profit-taking in high-growth sectors such as AI-linked stocks have diverted capital away from crypto.
Historically, Bitcoin’s bear phases conclude when tokens shift from speculators to long-term holders, a process Engel describes as a “necessary washout.” Current metrics indicate this transition is underway, with short-term holder supply decreasing by approximately 15% since the peak. However, sustained recovery demands two key signals: increased net holdings by high-conviction investors (HODLers) and persistently negative funding rates in derivatives markets, which would confirm the reduction of overheated leverage.
While not anticipating a plunge as severe as past cycles—like the 2018 drawdown of over 80%—Compass Point forecasts discomfort for traders through the remainder of 2025. Institutional data from sources like Glassnode reveals that long-term holder dormancy has risen, a bullish precursor, but overall positioning remains a headwind until year-end tax considerations and holiday liquidity thin further.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Are the Main Drivers Behind Bitcoin’s Recent 20% Decline?
The primary drivers include leveraged liquidations exceeding $2 billion, investor rotation to safe-haven assets like gold amid geopolitical tensions, and cyclical profit-taking following the summer rally. Newer entrants who bought above $100,000 are now unwinding, per Compass Point analysis, contributing to the drop from $126,000 to current levels around $91,200.
Will Bitcoin Experience More Selling Pressure Before the End of 2025?
Yes, analysts anticipate continued pressure through year-end as ETF outflows persist and short-term holders capitulate further. However, a rebound from the $82,000 support level and rising HODLer accumulation could signal stabilization soon, offering a clearer path for bulls to regain control by early 2026.
Key Takeaways
- Persistent Selling from New Investors: Recent buyers are liquidating BTC and ETF positions, creating headwinds until high-conviction holders step in.
- ETF Flows as a Key Indicator: The Real Market Average at $82,000 marks a critical support; sustained holdings here could confirm a market bottom.
- Path to Recovery: Watch for negative funding rates and increased long-term accumulation to gauge when the worst of the pressure eases.
Conclusion
Bitcoin’s extended selling pressure in late 2025 underscores the volatility inherent in cryptocurrency markets, driven by ETF dynamics and investor unwinding as highlighted by Compass Point. While the current stabilization near $91,200 offers hope, a true reversal requires accumulation from long-term holders to counter ongoing weakness. As the year closes, staying vigilant on these trends will help investors navigate the path ahead, positioning for potential opportunities in the evolving digital asset landscape.
In the broader context, this correction has erased much of the summer gains, with Bitcoin down nearly 30% from its October high. Market participants are closely monitoring institutional behaviors, as public companies and funds adjust their BTC exposures. For instance, recent reports note waves of selling from corporate treasuries, which could further influence dynamics if not offset by fresh inflows. Ed Engel’s insights emphasize that while uncomfortable, this phase purges excess leverage, paving the way for healthier growth.
Looking at historical parallels, Bitcoin has weathered similar year-end pressures before rebounding strongly in the new year. On-chain data from platforms like Chainalysis supports this, showing reduced exchange inflows as holders secure assets offline. Investors should focus on fundamentals such as network security and adoption metrics, which remain robust despite the price action.
Overall, the combination of macroeconomic shifts— including interest rate expectations and regulatory clarity—will play a pivotal role. With Bitcoin’s market cap still exceeding $1.8 trillion, even modest recoveries could yield significant returns for patient participants. As analysts like those at Compass Point advise, the key is distinguishing between temporary weakness and structural changes in the ecosystem.
