Bitcoin bull run 2025 may extend into 2026, says BitMEX founder Arthur Hayes, if macro policy and political factors (the so‑called “Trump trade”) keep liquidity loose; BTC must first clear a key $117K supply zone to sustain a move toward $120K.
-
Hayes predicts the bull run could stretch past Q4 2025 into 2026 if monetary and fiscal easing resumes.
-
Glassnode and CryptoQuant metrics show mixed signals: euphoria on on‑chain flows, but True MVRV not yet at previous peak sell levels.
-
Short‑term technical hurdle: $117K is a major supply node; clearing it is critical for a push to $120K.
Bitcoin bull run 2025 outlook: Hayes says rally may extend into 2026; watch $117K as the key level. Read expert analysis and on‑chain data. (150-160 chars)
What is Arthur Hayes’ outlook on the Bitcoin bull run for 2025–2026?
Arthur Hayes states the Bitcoin bull run could extend beyond Q4 2025 into 2026 if macro catalysts—fiscal stimulus and a change in Fed leadership—increase liquidity and risk appetite. He warns, however, that short‑term price action hinges on clearing a major $117K supply node.
How do on‑chain indicators support or contradict Hayes’ view?
Glassnode shows metrics commonly linked to euphoria, indicating large unrealized profits that historically precede cycle tops. At the same time, CryptoQuant’s True MVRV has not signaled a decisive ‘strong sell’ level typical of prior peaks. Together, these signals suggest possible additional upside, but with elevated sell‑pressure risk.
Key Takeaways
- Extended bull window: Hayes believes macro policy could prolong the rally into 2026.
- On‑chain caution: Glassnode flags euphoria, while True MVRV is not yet at historic peak sell levels.
- Price trigger: Clearing $117K is necessary for a credible advance toward $120K ahead of key Fed decisions.
Source: BTC cycle top (2017 vs 2021)
Why does Hayes expect a potential extension into 2026?
Hayes cites the possibility of renewed fiscal stimulus and a Fed leadership change as catalysts. He suggests political incentives—such as pro‑growth policies or stimulus programs—could reflate risk assets, echoing the so‑called “Trump trade” that influenced markets in late 2024.
He argues that if liquidity conditions become more accommodative, equities and crypto could outperform expectations. This is a macro narrative tied to real‑world policy choices rather than crypto‑specific fundamentals.
What on‑chain levels and indicators should traders watch now?
Monitor the $117K supply node: a large volume of BTC was previously acquired at this level and could create significant sell pressure. Key indicators to follow include realized/unrealized profit distributions, exchange inflows, and True MVRV readings—each signals investor behavior ahead of potential tops.
Source: Glassnode
Source: CryptoQuant
When could a cycle top occur if patterns repeat?
Historically, Bitcoin reached cycle peaks in Q4 of the year after the halving (2017, 2021). If that historical cadence holds, Q4 2025 could mark a peak. Hayes, however, warns that macro policy shifts could push peak price action into 2026.
How should traders balance opportunity and risk?
Use position sizing and clear stop levels. If BTC breaks and holds above $117K, consider phased scaling for targets near $120K. If on‑chain indicators reverse (spiking exchange inflows, True MVRV at historic sell thresholds), reduce exposure promptly.
Frequently Asked Questions
Will the Bitcoin bull run end in 2025?
Not necessarily. Historical cycles point to Q4 2025 as peak risk, but macro policy and liquidity could extend gains into 2026, per Arthur Hayes. On‑chain euphoria and True MVRV readings should guide timing decisions.
What is the $117K level significance?
$117K is a major supply node with heavy prior accumulation; it may act as resistance. Clearing and sustaining above it is likely required for an advance to $120K.
Summary table: Key metrics and trigger levels
| Metric | Current signal | Key level / action |
|---|---|---|
| Glassnode euphoria index | High | Watch for profit‑taking spikes |
| True MVRV (CryptoQuant) | Below peak sell zones | Not yet signaling decisive top |
| Price | Near supply node | Clear $117K to target $120K |
Conclusion
Bitcoin bull run 2025 may not be over: Hayes’ macro view and mixed on‑chain signals leave room for additional upside, but the $117K supply node is the immediate technical battleground. Traders should monitor on‑chain indicators and policy developments and manage risk with disciplined sizing and exits.
