- Concerns have arisen that Bitcoin (BTC) may face speculative selling pressure when its value exceeds $33,000, according to Glassnode’s latest analysis.
- Recently, significant pressure has been applied to leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the US by the SEC.
- The upward trend was initially initiated by American investors, followed by European and Asian investors.
Bitcoin price is maintaining stability above $30,000, but it may face challenges in the future.
Bitcoin May Face Challenges in the Future
According to the latest analysis by data analytics firm Glassnode, concerns have emerged that Bitcoin may face speculative selling pressure when its value exceeds $33,000. The cryptocurrency, which is currently stable above $30,000, may encounter challenges in the near future.
Recently, significant pressure has been applied to leading cryptocurrency exchanges in the US by the SEC. However, this pressure was quickly followed by a wave of Bitcoin ETF applications led by prominent global asset manager BlackRock. With the positive impact of these developments, the value of Bitcoin surpassed $25,000 and reached its highest level this year.
The upward trend was initially initiated by American investors, followed by European and Asian investors. Glassnode delved into these regional changes by examining coin movements on exchanges where fiat currency enters the cryptocurrency market.
Monitoring Market Sentiments
One way to evaluate market sentiment is to observe how exchanges react to external factors such as the recent SEC lawsuit against Binance and Coinbase. Currently, offshore exchanges show a monthly net outflow of 37.7k BTC, while buying pressure on onshore exchanges has decreased to 3.2k BTC per month.
Another interesting point is the transfer of assets from investors with a long-term holding (HODL) strategy, who have a high time preference. However, the sustainability of this “supply shock” trend depends on new demand entering the market.
Bitcoin Price Changes by Region
Now attention is shifting towards short-term Bitcoin holders, who are often considered more speculative investors. It appears that the unified cost base of these investors provides significant price support around $26,000 for Bitcoin. However, Glassnode warns that a reverse effect may occur in the near future.
Glassnode’s MVRV indicator for short-term investors measures the market value of coins relative to their last movement prices, and it shows a strong reaction at MVRV = 1. Currently, this ratio stands at 1.12, indicating an average profit of around 12% for short-term holders.
However, if this ratio surpasses 1.2 ($33,200) and approaches 1.4 ($38,700), the risk of market corrections increases, indicating potential selling pressure above $33,000 for Bitcoin speculators.
Therefore, it is recommended to be cautious and make all investment or trading decisions based on comprehensive research.
