Bitcoin Near $108K as Prediction Markets Flip Bearish; Technicals Point to Possible Drop Toward $100K

• Prediction markets flipped from 57% to 57% the other way — now favoring $100K over $120K.

• Short-term indicators (4H RSI ~32.7, ADX ~34.6) signal accelerating downward momentum.

• Daily trend is weak (daily ADX ~25.23, RSI ~37); Ichimoku Cloud and a 4H death cross increase probability of further downside.

Bitcoin price dips as prediction markets and short-term indicators turn bearish; see key levels, indicators, and prepare for a likely $100K revisit — read COINOTAG analysis.

Where will Bitcoin price go next?

Bitcoin price faces short-term downside pressure: prediction markets and four‑hour technicals favor a move toward $100,000 before reclaiming $120,000. Traders should watch immediate support at $106,400 and the cluster of overhead EMAs that define short-term resistance.

How do prediction markets and technical indicators shape the Bitcoin price outlook?

Prediction market data from Myriad (built by Dastan) shows a rapid sentiment flip: the probability that Bitcoin reaches $100,000 before $120,000 recently moved to 57%, reversing earlier sentiment. Short-term technicals corroborate this shift: the four‑hour RSI sits near 32.74 and the ADX on that timeframe is ~34.63, indicating a strong downtrend. Meanwhile, the daily RSI (~37) and ADX (~25.23) show a weaker but present trend, suggesting the daily picture is leaning bearish without full capitulation. TradingView chart overlays show a four‑hour death cross and Bitcoin trading below the Ichimoku Cloud — patterns commonly interpreted as increased downside risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

Will Bitcoin price fall back to $100,000 this week?

Short-term signals and prediction market odds favor a revisit of $100,000 within the next 48–72 hours if immediate support at $106,400 fails. Market conditions show accelerating short-term momentum to the downside, increasing the probability of that outcome.

Is Bitcoin likely to rebound to $115K tomorrow?

Most predictors (Myriad) give a ~95% probability that Bitcoin will not hit $115,000 by tomorrow. Given stacked overhead EMA resistance and current momentum indicators, a one‑day bullish reversal to $115K is unlikely.

Key Takeaways

• Sentiment flipped quickly: Prediction markets moved from bullish to bearish within hours; treat sudden flips as high‑information events.
• Short-term technicals favor bears: 4H RSI (~32.7), 4H ADX (~34.6), and a 4H death cross point to accelerating downside momentum.
• Actionable levels: Monitor $106,400 (immediate), $100,000 (strong support). Resistances to watch: $112,000 and $116,000.

Conclusion

COINOTAG analysis shows a clear short-term bearish tilt for Bitcoin price. Prediction markets (Myriad) and four‑hour technical indicators favor pressure toward $100,000 unless a rapid momentum shift occurs to push BTC above clustered EMAs and through $112–116K resistance. Traders should prioritize risk management, observe the $106,400 support level closely, and watch how volume and on‑chain flows evolve over the next 48 hours. Published: 2025-10-16. Updated: 2025-10-16. Author: COINOTAG.

Expert comment: “Shorter timeframes show stronger trend readings than daily charts, which typically signals momentum is accelerating,” says a COINOTAG markets analyst. “That alignment with prediction‑market sentiment increases the odds of a near‑term pullback.”

Disclaimer

The views and opinions expressed are for informational purposes only and do not constitute financial, investment, or other advice. Data referenced: Myriad prediction market (Dastan), TradingView chart indicators, Fear & Greed Index. COINOTAG is the author and publisher of this analysis.